Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price36.48 USD
Fair value41.09
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-11Read Markdown39.03-6.5% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Markup39.03-6.5% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-09-02Read Distribution37.54-2.8% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup38.67-5.7% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Orix Corp ADR holds its Markdown at $36.48. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$36.48
Valuation
10.26 trailing · 3.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.74
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Financial sector: Financial
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Financial sector: Financial
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Orix does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when IX's ethical verdict changes
Today IX does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 12.6% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Japan Finance House Trips Ethical Screen
Picture a Tokyo salaryman signing a car lease or a factory owner funding new kit. The money moves through ORIX, a broad Japanese financial conglomerate with fingers in leasing, lending and insurance across Asia and beyond.
We pass. The business shows 28% revenue growth and a 3.3x forward P/E, yet the ethical screen flags the entire financial sector and we do not override it. Narrow moat, 10% ROE and a single analyst target barely above the current price leave little reason to stretch the rules.
The low multiple may simply reflect cyclical earnings risk in credit and leasing. Currency moves and Japan-specific regulation add further uncertainty that a tiny margin of safety does not offset. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
IX trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-26Markdown$36.51-6.5%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$39.03+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$39.03+4.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-08-03Markup$40.22+4.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-07-18Markup$38.67+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 33% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 77%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (1 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $39.
2026-07-03Markup$38.67+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$38.67Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
