HST · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $15.3B · 162 employees
Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc., herein referred to as we, Host Inc., or the Company, is a self-managed and self-administered real estate investment trust that owns hotel property.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
22.04 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Host Hotels & Resorts holds its Markdown at $22.04. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 262 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 262 days
Price at the screen
$22.04
Valuation
14.79 trailing · 20.98 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.10
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
43.22%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 43.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
1.98%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
7.06%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 7.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.52%
Below 5%
Only 0.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $18.03 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 3.60% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 18.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Hotel REITs Feel Every Booking Cycle
Picture a hotel lobby on a quiet Tuesday. Bookings ebb with every business trip cut or holiday cancelled, and Host Hotels owns the properties that capture that swing. We pass because the shares trade at a 24 times forward multiple while revenue inches forward just 3 percent a year and fair value sits well below the current price.
The business posts a 16 percent profit margin and 15 percent return on equity with a moderate moat, yet the ethical screen flags excessive debt. Twenty analysts may still say buy, but the numbers show a company priced for better times than the growth outlook supports.
Cyclical hotel cash flows can look steady at the peak, yet the debt load leaves little room when travel slows. Negative margin of safety at current levels simply widens the gap between price and value.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HST trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-08-01Markup · changed$25.47+3.5%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-18Accumulation$24.62+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 27% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 58%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $23.
2026-07-03Accumulation$24.62+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$24.62Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
