Hillman Solutions Corp., together with its subsidiaries, provides hardware-related products and related merchandising services in the United States, Canada, Mexico, Latin America, and the Caribbean.
Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · 13 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Hillman Solutions Corp. holds its Distribution at $7.85. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days
Price at the screen
$7.85
Valuation
39.25 trailing · 11.54 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.39
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
32.45%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 32.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
6.04%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 6.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 63.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +53% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Hardware shelves full yet returns stay thin
Walk into any big box store and the same fasteners, keys and hooks sit on the same racks. Hillman supplies those shelves across North America and Latin America, yet the business only manages 3% revenue growth, a 2% profit margin and 3% return on equity. At 11.5 times forward earnings the shares look inexpensive against our $13.02 fair value, but the opportunity rating is none because the underlying economics do not justify ownership.
The ethical screen is cleared and eight analysts still carry a buy rating with a $12 median target. None of that moves the needle when growth is modest, returns on capital are minimal and no clear moat is visible. Low multiples on weak profitability often signal exactly this kind of trap rather than a bargain.
Cyclical demand for tools and accessories can swing sharply with housing and auto repair cycles, leaving little cushion if volumes slip. The market price already embeds that reality. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HLMN trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Distribution · changed$7.85-3.0%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-08-01Markdown$8.09+4.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-18Markdown$7.72+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $12.
2026-07-03Markdown$7.72+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$7.72Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
