NAS10030,482+2.83%S&P7,765+1.49%GOLD$4,387−0.86%BTC$86,528+6.64%VIX14.87+0.41%live tape · as of 23:00 UTC · 21 Sep
The Screen · Industrials · Tools & Accessories
The Timken Company
TKR · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $8.1B · 19,000 employees
The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and sells engineered bearings and industrial motion products, and related services in the United States and internationally.
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical passes the values gate
Price117.14 USD
Fair value147.75
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-14Read Distribution130.25-10.1% to today ✓
2026-07-02Read Markup137.06-14.5% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The Timken Company holds its Markdown at $117.14. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 15 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-18
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 15 days
Price at the screen
$117.14
Valuation
31.63 trailing · 16.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.21
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
30.79%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 30.8% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
15.78%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 15.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.22%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Conscience Overlay
Conscience flag · AFSC Divest List
The quantitative screen above is arithmetic and this name passes it. Separately, community boycott lists cite this company: Cited by AFSC divest list for manufacturing components used in military equipment supplied to conflict zones. The desk records that flag here without folding it into the verdict: the screen measures the balance sheet, the overlay informs the conscience, and they are different judgements that belong to different owners. The second one is yours.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-18 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 26.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 11 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +28% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-18 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Bearings maker shows no edge at current prices
Every factory floor depends on bearings that keep the gears turning, yet The Timken Company offers nothing that sets it apart from other industrial suppliers. At a forward multiple of 19 times, revenue growth of 8 percent and a 10 percent return on equity, the shares sit almost exactly at our fair value with only a 4 percent margin of safety.
The slim buffer and middling profit margins of 7 percent give no reason to step in. Consensus targets from the eleven analysts sit right beside current levels, confirming the absence of any real opportunity.
Industrial suppliers remain exposed to swings in factory output and capital spending that can hit earnings hard when cycles slow. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TKR trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-14Distribution$124.54-4.4%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 4.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 5.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-18Markup$137.06+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 40% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 26%. The street (11 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $136.
2026-07-03Markup$137.06+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$137.06Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
