An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Snap-on Incorporated manufactures and markets tools, equipment, diagnostics, and repair information and systems solutions for professional users worldwide.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $419.31
Snap-on holds its Markup at $419.31.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-29
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 215 days
Price
$419.31
Valuation
20.79 trailing · 19.67 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 83.9
Beta
0.72
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads OVERVALUED — it trades above our $335.39 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 4.20% revenue growth.
Read at
$419.31
20.79 P/E · 19.67 fwd
Our fair value
$335.39
20% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$415.00
-1% to current
Target low $330.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $461.00
▲ current $419.31 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$419.31
you are here
Conservative
$297.00
-29%
Analyst avg
$415.00
-1%
Our fair value
$335.39
-20%
Analyst high
$461.00
+10%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the Street see limited upside at this price.
Revenue growth
4.20%
Profit margin
19.60%
Debt to equity
21.60
Analyst consensus
Hold · 9 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 15.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 29.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 1.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Premium Tools Priced Beyond Their Worth
Walk into any professional garage and the Snap-on truck is the one mechanics trust for tools that survive daily abuse. Yet at $411 the shares sit 11% above our fair value, leaving no margin of safety and an overvalued rating despite steady 5% revenue growth and 20% profit margins.
The business earns an 18% ROE with a moderate moat and clears our ethical screen without issue. Nine analysts sit on a hold rating with a median target near the current price, but the 19.2 times forward earnings already bake in perfection the numbers do not justify.
Industrial demand can swing with car repair volumes and workshop spending, so any slowdown would hit harder from this starting valuation. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
SNA trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $390. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$379.77+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 21%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $390.
2026-07-03Distribution$379.77+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$379.77Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.