NAS10028,180+0.68%S&P7,569+0.36%GOLD$4,026+2.18%BTC$77,978+0.82%VIX20.83−1.51%latest tape · as of 07:18 UTC
The Screen · Basic Materials · Gold
Franco-Nevada Corp
FNV · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $43.6B
Franco-Nevada Corporation operates as a royalty and stream company focused on precious metals in South America, Central America, Mexico, the United States, Canada, Australia, Europe, and Africa.
Not yet scored
225.99 USD
Price as of 3 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-03 · the tape above runs as of 07:18 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price225.99 USD at the 3 Nov 2026 close
Our value readOvervalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.21, read 2026-11-03
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price225.99 USD
Fair value177.55
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 3 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Distribution235.79-4.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 13% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-29Read Markup271.77-16.8% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 27% rise in 4 weeks
2026-07-30Read Distribution214.43+5.4% to today Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup209.46+7.9% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Franco-Nevada Corp holds its Distribution at $225.99. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-03
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$225.99
Valuation
29.54 trailing · 25.52 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
0.93
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
13.41%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 13.4% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
11.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 11.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.55%
Below 5%
Only 1.5% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
The Read, in Plain English
Franco-Nevada clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but its debt figure is still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-11-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 3 Nov 2026: it trades above our $177.55 fair value estimate, narrow competitive moat, 58.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-03 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 27.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $177.55, with a range of $177.55 to $204.18, dated to the 2026-11-03 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold royalties ride volatile price swings
Picture a firm that takes a cut from gold output across dozens of mines without footing the exploration bill. Franco-Nevada collects those royalties from the Americas to Africa and posts strong margins when metal prices rise.
Yet the shares sit above our fair value with a forward multiple that already bakes in continued strength. Revenue has surged but this remains a cyclical business where peak earnings often mask the risk that multiples compress once prices normalise.
A narrow moat and commodity swings leave little margin for error, especially when analyst targets assume the good times last. Ethical checks pass but the cycle itself signals caution rather than opportunity.
Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FNV trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Distribution$241.58+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 4% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $295.
2026-10-21Distribution$241.58-1.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $295.
2026-10-14Distribution$244.85+3.8%Entry 7
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $295.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 13.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $295.
2026-08-29Markup · changed$271.77+26.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 26.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $295.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $295.
2026-07-18Markup$209.46+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 5% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 27%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $295.
2026-07-03Markup$209.46+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$209.46Entry 1
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
