An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · AngloGold Ashanti plc operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas.
VERDICT
The label
Markdown
read at $80.48
AngloGold Ashanti Plc holds its Markdown at $80.48.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markdown label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 121 days
Price
$80.48
Valuation
11.82 trailing · 8.04 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.67
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$80.48
11.82 P/E · 8.04 fwd
Our fair value
$99.55
24% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$114.50
+42% to current
Target low $76.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $134.00
▲ current $80.48 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$80.48
you are here
Conservative
$68.40
-15%
Analyst avg
$114.50
+42%
Our fair value
$99.55
+24%
Analyst high
$134.00
+67%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
64.90%
Profit margin
31.11%
Debt to equity
22.03
Analyst consensus
Buy · 8 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Gold Miner Numbers Mask Cyclical Trap Risk
Picture a gold rush town that booms when prices spike and empties when they drop. AngloGold Ashanti shows exactly that pattern, with revenue up 65 percent, a 31 percent profit margin and 43 percent ROE at a forward multiple of just 7.7 times. The figures look compelling on paper, yet the opportunity rating stays at none.
Low multiples in mining often reflect peak earnings rather than bargains. Gold prices drive these results, and when they normalise the same low multiple can quickly turn expensive. A narrow moat and heavy exposure to African, Australian and American operations add further volatility that a simple margin of safety calculation does not capture.
Analyst targets sit higher, yet history shows cyclical miners rarely sustain elevated returns once commodity cycles turn. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $121. Entered 2026-07-22 · Distribution
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $121.
2026-07-18Markup$86.30+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $121.
2026-07-03Markup$86.30+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$86.30Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming AU
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
9 Apr2026
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
sell
15K–50K
9 Apr2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
buy
50K–100K
8 Apr2026
Mike Kelly
Republican
buy
50K–100K
6 May2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
buy
250K–500K
6 Apr2026
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$107.04
-26.5%
$1.16
$746
-25.4%
2 months
$107.93
-27.1%
$1.16
$740
-26.0%
3 months
$101.73
-22.6%
$2.89
$802
-19.8%
6 months
$83.07
-5.3%
$2.89
$982
-1.8%
1 year
$42.75
+84.1%
$4.60
$1,949
+94.9%
2 years
$20.74
+279.4%
$5.64
$4,066
+306.6%
3 years
$21.79
+261.1%
$6.05
$3,889
+288.9%
5 years
$18.76
+319.4%
$6.73
$4,553
+355.3%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever AU does next, these words stay.
AngloGold Ashanti Plc · AU · Markdown · $80.48
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
