Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 15:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
AngloGold Ashanti Plc holds its Distribution at $103.88. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 28 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 28 days
Price at the screen
$103.88
Valuation
13.92 trailing · 10.50 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.75
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.13%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.1% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
20.08%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 20.1% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.45%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 4.6% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +10% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gold Miner Numbers Mask Cyclical Trap Risk
Picture a gold rush town that booms when prices spike and empties when they drop. AngloGold Ashanti shows exactly that pattern, with revenue up 65 percent, a 31 percent profit margin and 43 percent ROE at a forward multiple of just 7.7 times. The figures look compelling on paper, yet the opportunity rating stays at none.
Low multiples in mining often reflect peak earnings rather than bargains. Gold prices drive these results, and when they normalise the same low multiple can quickly turn expensive. A narrow moat and heavy exposure to African, Australian and American operations add further volatility that a simple margin of safety calculation does not capture.
Analyst targets sit higher, yet history shows cyclical miners rarely sustain elevated returns once commodity cycles turn. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AU trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markup · changed$87.59+14.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 14.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $121.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $121.
2026-07-18Markup$86.30+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 84%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 44%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $121.
2026-07-03Markup$86.30+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$86.30Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
