An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $37.38
Barrick Mining Corp holds its Markup at $37.38.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-27
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 113 days
Price
$37.38
Valuation
10.13 trailing · 8.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.10
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$37.38
10.13 P/E · 8.42 fwd
Our fair value
$46.96
26% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$56.40
+51% to current
Target low $29.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $64.00
▲ current $37.38 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$37.38
you are here
Conservative
$28.13
-25%
Analyst avg
$56.40
+51%
Our fair value
$46.96
+26%
Analyst high
$64.00
+71%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
66.70%
Profit margin
32.14%
Debt to equity
12.85
Analyst consensus
Buy · 16 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Gold Prices Swing Like A Pendulum
Picture a miner chasing gold seams while the metal price lurches with every rate decision and crisis headline. Barrick shows 67 percent revenue growth, a 32 percent profit margin and 25 percent ROE, all at a forward multiple of just 7.7 times. Yet the cyclical nature of the industry means those peak earnings can vanish as quickly as they appeared, turning a low multiple into a warning rather than a bargain.
We pass because the narrow moat leaves the business exposed once metal prices normalise. Strong numbers today do not change the fact that gold miners have repeatedly destroyed capital at the top of cycles, and nothing in the current setup removes that pattern.
Analysts see upside to 57 dollars, yet history shows how quickly consensus targets follow the metal price down. Currency swings, rising costs and sudden demand drops remain live risks even with an ethical pass. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 91%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56. Entered 2026-07-22 · Distribution
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 91%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-18Markup$39.46+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 91%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (16 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $56.
2026-07-03Markup$39.46+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$39.46Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming B
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
9 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
9 Jun2026
Gil Cisneros
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
9 Apr2026
Josh Gottheimer
Democrat
sell
1K–15K
8 May2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
sell
100K–250K
8 May2026
Ro Khanna
Democrat
buy
1K–15K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$46.80
-19.9%
$0.18
$805
-19.5%
2 months
$43.37
-13.5%
$0.18
$869
-13.1%
3 months
$44.30
-15.4%
$0.18
$850
-15.0%
6 months
$42.61
-12.0%
$0.60
$894
-10.6%
1 year
$19.59
+91.4%
$0.92
$1,961
+96.1%
2 years
$15.74
+138.3%
$1.32
$2,466
+146.6%
3 years
$15.87
+136.3%
$1.72
$2,471
+147.1%
5 years
$20.17
+85.9%
$3.03
$2,009
+100.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever B does next, these words stay.
Barrick Mining Corp · B · Markup · $37.38
Recorded 2026-07-27 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
