Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 23:26 UTC · 4 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
DLocal Limited holds its Accumulation at $15.52. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 51 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 51 days
Price at the screen
$15.52
Valuation
21.09 trailing · 12.68 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.87
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
2.42%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
22.59%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 22.6% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads STRONG OPPORTUNITY: it trades at roughly a 35% discount to our $21.00 fair value, strong competitive moat, 55.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 35.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 10 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
The Stripe of the emerging world
Every time someone in São Paulo buys a subscription or a gig worker in Manila cashes out, the money has to cross a maze of local banks and wallets that Visa and Stripe were never built for. DLocal is the rails underneath that — one connection that lets a global company take payments and pay out across roughly 40 emerging markets and 900-plus local methods, without stitching together a dozen fragile local partners. Think of it as the Stripe for the parts of the world Stripe doesn't really reach.
Why it stands out. This is a business growing revenue near 55% a year, throwing off real cash (a 9% free-cash-flow yield, rare for anything growing this fast), earning a 35% return on equity — and it trades at under 13 times next year's earnings. Plainly: the market is pricing DLocal like a fragile, broken company, and the numbers say the opposite. High-growth software at a value-stock multiple is not a combination you see often.
Why it's cheap, and it's a fair question. This isn't mispriced by accident. It's an emerging-market name, so earnings ride on currencies that swing; the stock has had a brutal, 90%-off-its-high kind of ride, and there have been governance questions a Western megacap wouldn't face. That's the bear case, and it's legitimate. The call is whether a payments toll-booth that keeps compounding transactions deserves to trade like a distressed lender. We think not.
Where we land. Our model puts fair value around $21 — about 45% above today's $14.50 — and that's the conservative read; ten analysts rate it strong buy at an $18 median. We opened a tracked position on 1 July at $12.25, up around 18% since, but the thesis was never the two-week move — it's owning a growing, cash-generative payments network at the price of a no-growth one, and getting paid to wait.
Risk sits around 60%, high, and it's the emerging-market and currency exposure driving that, not the business quality. Size accordingly. Analysis, not advice.
A real, dated position · reported honestly whether it works or not. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
DLO trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Uruguay). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (10 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $18.
2026-07-26Markup · changed$14.49+0.1%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-18Distribution$14.48+18.2%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 18.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 31%. The street (10 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-03Distribution$12.25+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$12.25Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
