Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 1.56, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price25.00 USD
Fair value27.23
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation24.50+2.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-11Read Markdown24.25+3.1% to today Accumulation gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Accumulation24.25+3.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation after a 9% slide in 6 weeks
2026-08-24Read Markup26.78-6.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after a 5% rise in 8 weeks
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
CAE Inc. holds its Accumulation at $25.00. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days
Price at the screen
$25.00
Valuation
38.28 trailing · 23.30 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.02
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited sector: defense
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.24%
Below 5%
Only 0.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
CAE does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in aerospace and defense, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when CAE's ethical verdict changes
Today CAE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 11% discount to our $27.23 fair value, weak competitive moat, 6.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +34% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Flight Simulator Firm Fails Ethical Screen
Picture a pilot stepping into a full-motion simulator to rehearse an engine failure at night. The kit works, yet the company behind it trips our ethical screen on core business activity. That single failure overrides everything else on the page.
The numbers do not help the case. Revenue edges up just 4 percent, margins sit at 6 percent and return on equity matches that low level. A 23 times forward earnings multiple for a business with a weak moat leaves little margin for error, even if two analysts still see upside to 33 dollars.
Currency swings, defence-contract lumpiness and thin profitability all sit in the risk column. The ethical flag simply removes any reason to look past them. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CAE trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 2.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
2026-10-18Markdown$23.91-1.4%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$24.25+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 9.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
2026-08-24Markup · changed$26.78+8.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 8.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
2026-07-24Distribution$24.69-3.2%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
2026-07-18Distribution$25.50+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 6%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 24%. The street (2 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $33.
2026-07-03Distribution$25.50+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$25.50Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
