Framework Journal · one stock, one dated entry

Recorded 2026-07-24 · Permanent

Blackstone Inc. logoBlackstone Inc. BX

Outside both standards

An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.

In plain words · Blackstone Inc.

The label
Markup

read at $130.00

Blackstone Inc. holds its Markup at $130.00.

PHINPOOPSC
  • PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
  • INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
  • POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
  • OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
  • SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
  • edge confirmed
  • edge broken
  • edge forming

Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.

The investor read · the season, not the day

As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
PhaseMarkup
Quantitative stateConsolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price$130.00
Valuation29.08 trailing · 17.47 forward price to earnings
Values screenFAIL · score 10.0
Beta1.58

The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth

Our framework reads AVOID — it trades above our $125.82 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 5.70% revenue growth.

Read at
$130.00
29.08 P/E · 17.47 fwd
Our fair value
$125.82
3% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$140.00
+8% to current
Target low $119.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $184.00
▲ current $130.00 · | average target

Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going

$192$132$72TODAY5y agoPROJECTIONAnalyst high$184.00 +55%Analyst avg$140.00 +18%Our fair value$125.82 +6%Conservative$107.10 -10%

The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street

Current
$130.00
you are here
Conservative
$107.10
-18%
Analyst avg
$140.00
+8%
Our fair value
$125.82
-3%
Analyst high
$184.00
+42%

Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.

Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.

Revenue growth5.70%
Profit margin21.21%
Debt to equity72.02
Analyst consensusBuy · 21 covering

Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.

The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English

This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:

The common standard · AAOIFI
Used by most halal investing apps
✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard · asset-based
The one Titan applies
✗ DOES NOT PASS

Why it fails. The problem is its business activity screen. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.

What these two standards are, and how they differ →

  • Business activity Business activity: Financials sector Fail

Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.

The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean

Alternatives giant fails ethical screen outright

Picture the firm that channels billions into private equity and real estate for the world's largest investors. Blackstone looks impressive on paper with its strong moat, 30% ROE and steady 6% revenue growth. We pass anyway because the business activity screen flags it outright.

Forward earnings sit at 17 times with 21% profit margins and analysts clustered around a buy rating. The numbers show a capable operator in alternatives, yet the valuation already sits above our fair value with little margin left. Scale alone does not override the ethical verdict.

The real risk is the screen failure itself, which points to exposures we do not accept regardless of moat strength. Cyclical flows in private markets can amplify that issue quickly. Analysis, not advice.

The fundamentals · plain-English read
Forward P/E17.5x
expensive even after accounting for its growth
Trailing P/E29.1x
a premium valuation
Revenue growth5.7%
slow but positive growth
Profit margin21.2%
healthy profit margins
Return on equity29.5%
an exceptional return on shareholder capital
Debt to equity0.72
moderate, manageable leverage
Current ratio0.90
below 1 — short-term bills exceed liquid assets
Beta1.58
much more volatile than the market
Market cap$161.8B
Employees5,285

The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.

Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.

Latest news · what the market is reading on BX

Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference — not our reporting, not advice.

Related securities · others in BX's space worth a look

Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.

Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are

BX trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.

The trader read · the latest dated commentary

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $144. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-23 · Distribution

The dated journal · newest first, never edited

2026-07-23 Distribution $126.91 +0.0% Entry 10

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $144. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-22 Distribution $126.91 +0.0% Entry 9

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $144. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-21 Distribution $126.91 +0.0% Entry 8

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $144. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-20 Distribution $126.91 +0.0% Entry 7

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $144. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-19 Distribution $126.91 +10.0% Entry 6

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 10.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $144. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-18 Distribution $115.35 +0.0% Entry 5

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $144. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-17 Distribution $115.35 +0.0% Entry 4

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $144. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-16 Distribution $115.35 +0.0% Entry 3

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 21%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $144. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.

2026-07-03 Distribution $115.35 +0.0% Entry 2

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.

2026-07-02 Distribution $115.35 Entry 1

The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.

Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.

The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed

Most recent filings · BX
DateInsiderTitleTypeSharesValue
2026-05-11 PORAT RUTH M Director 438 $53,974
2026-05-01 SAWHNEY VIKRANT Officer 30,014 $3,775,565
2026-04-01 PORAT RUTH M Director 1,961 ·
2026-04-01 SAWHNEY VIKRANT Officer 129,077 ·
2026-04-01 FINLEY JOHN G Officer 152,222 ·
2026-04-01 BARATTA JOSEPH P Director 124,626 ·
2026-04-01 BREYER JAMES W Director 1,961 ·
2026-04-01 CHAE MICHAEL S. Chief Financial Officer 152,667 ·
2026-04-01 GRAY JONATHAN D. President 302,662 ·
2026-04-01 PARRETT WILLIAM G Director 2,048 ·

Public filings, recorded as found. The full tape lives at Insider Intelligence.

The political ledger · congressional disclosures

Disclosures naming BX
DatePoliticianPartyTypeAmount
2026-04-13 Ro Khanna Democrat Sale 15K–50K
15 May2026 Ro Khanna Democrat buy 1K–15K
1 May2026 Ro Khanna Democrat sell 1K–15K

What holding actually paid · price plus dividends

If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
PeriodPrice thenPrice returnDivs per share$1,000 becameTotal return
1 month $121.40 -2.2% · $978 -2.2%
2 months $113.78 +4.3% $1.16 $1,053 +5.3%
3 months $101.18 +17.3% $1.16 $1,184 +18.4%
6 months $150.94 -21.4% $2.65 $804 -19.6%
1 year $137.95 -14.0% $4.97 $896 -10.4%
2 years $112.49 +5.5% $9.02 $1,135 +13.5%
3 years $80.37 +47.7% $12.38 $1,631 +63.1%
5 years $80.45 +47.5% $20.84 $1,734 +73.4%

Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever BX does next, these words stay.

Blackstone Inc. · BX · Markup · $130.00
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically

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