Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-15
Options put/call open interest 0.69, read 2026-10-27
Ethical passes the values gate
Price395.93 USD
Fair value400.77
Ethical score68.5/100
RatingOVERVALUED
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-26Read Distribution430.01-7.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after an 11% slide in 3 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markup485.00-18.4% to today Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-09-13Read Markdown472.79-16.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown with results news in the headlines
2026-07-02Read Markup453.01-12.6% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Applied Materials holds its Distribution at $395.93. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 41 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 41 days
Price at the screen
$395.93
Valuation
38.54 trailing · 24.19 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 68.5
Beta
1.59
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
19.42%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 19.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
11.92%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 11.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
34.23%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 34.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.41%
Below 5%
Only 4.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Applied Materials clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 19%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 4% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when AMAT's ethical verdict changes
Today AMAT passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
Free, no account needed. Every email has a link to stop.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $400.77 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 24.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 6.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 36 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +63% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Semiconductor Star Shining Too Bright?
Imagine a factory floor bustling with machines that whir into action to shape the future of our digital world. This is what Applied Materials does, providing the tools that help build the very chips at the heart of technology. It stands out for a booming revenue growth of 25% and enviable profit margins of 30%, underpinned by a strong moat - a testament to its market dominance in semiconductor equipment.
However, our fair value for AMAT is significantly lower than the current price, suggesting the stock is overvalued at -19%. Revenue growth and profit margins might look enticing, but considering the cyclical nature of the industry, these could be at peak earnings, painting a rosy picture that might not last. This is the cyclical value trap, where a low multiple on peak earnings can be deceptive.
The consensus rating from the 35 analysts covering the stock is a strong buy, with a median target price of $650, which seems optimistic given our valuation. While the ethical screen gives the green light, investors should tread carefully due to the cyclical risks and current overvaluation. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMAT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 15% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-19Markup$430.01-15.2%Entry 16
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 15.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 7% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading oversold. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-12Markup$507.03+4.5%Entry 15
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-10-02Markup · changed$485.00+2.6%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-09-13Markdown · changed$472.79-11.5%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 11.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-08-13Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 12
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-12Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 11
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-11Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 10
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-09Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-08Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
