What the Fed did (verified, federalreserve.gov, 28 Oct, 18:00 UTC)
- Held the federal funds target range at 3.75% to 4.00%. Vote 10-2.
- Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack voted against. Both wanted another 0.25% hike.
- Statement: activity “expanding at a strong pace”, inflation “remains elevated”, and more information will guide the next step.
- This is six weeks after the 16 Sep hike, the first in three years.
Source: Federal Reserve statement, 28 Oct 2026.
What the two dissents change
A pause after a hike usually reads as “done for now”. This one doesn’t, for two reasons.
- The last time this Fed held with hawkish dissents (29 Jul, three of them), its next meeting hiked (16 Sep, 12-0). That is one case, not a rule, but it says dissents on this committee have led the vote, not trailed it.
- Cook is a Board governor, not a regional bank president. A governor voting for a hike says the push to tighten is coming from inside Washington too, not only from the regional banks.
So December (9 Dec, with new projections) is a real chance for a hike. The bond market already leans that way: the 2-year yield at 4.78% (18:15 UTC) sits about 0.8% above the top of the Fed’s range, so more hikes are already in the price.
The tape so far
Prices before the statement (17:55 UTC) against the latest print. Futures and the dollar index are delayed data, about 10 minutes.
| Market | 17:55 UTC | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures (ES) | 7,775.25 | 7,764.75 (18:06) | -10.50 |
| Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) | 29,868.00 | 29,829.25 (18:06) | -38.75 |
| S&P 500 cash | 7,739.72 | 7,726.10 (18:16) | -13.62 |
| Nasdaq 100 cash | 29,712.05 | 29,643.90 (18:16) | -68.15 |
| US 2-year yield | 4.770% | 4.778% (18:15) | +0.008 |
| US 10-year yield | 5.020% | 5.036% (18:14) | +0.016 |
| Dollar index (DXY) | 102.344 | 102.316 (18:06) | -0.028 |
| Gold futures | 4,053.50 | 4,047.70 (18:06) | -5.80 |
| WTI crude futures | 102.61 | 102.93 (18:06) | +0.32 |
| Bitcoin | 80,810 | 80,608 (18:16) | -202 |
Small moves. Yields up a touch, stocks down a touch, the dollar flat. A hold with hawkish dissents was close to what was priced. The real move comes from the press conference.
What Warsh has to say to move things (18:30 UTC)
- Hawkish path. He says December is open for a hike, or that one hike was not enough to bring inflation back to 2%. Then watch the 2-year push above today’s 4.782% high and the 10-year above 5.049%. That lifts the dollar, weighs on gold, and hits the Nasdaq hardest because it is the most rate-sensitive.
- Calm path. He frames today as wait and see and says the current setting is tight enough for now. Then the 2-year goes back under Tuesday’s 4.737% close and the 10-year back under 5.00%. That takes pressure off stocks and gold and lets the dollar fade.
- Anything in between and the market will probably stay inside the levels below until Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close.
Levels that matter, and what a close beyond each means
S&P 500 (cash). It has been in a 7,632 to 7,845 range for more than 30 sessions and sits mid-range at 7,726 (18:16 UTC).
- A daily close above 7,845 breaks the range to the upside.
- Two daily closes below 7,632 break it lower. That line held on Friday’s dip (7,623.68 close, then 7,676.77 and 7,722.60).
Nasdaq 100. 29,644 cash at 18:16 UTC.
- 29,580 is the line. Tuesday closed above it (29,651), so we stepped back from the short idea. A daily close back under 29,580 puts the down case back on, first target 28,921.
- A close above 30,000 means the cap under that level has given way.
- 28,757 is the floor that has held all month.
Gold (spot). Our read is down, likely. Gold futures run about 12 above spot, so 4,047.70 futures is roughly 4,036 spot.
- Spot is inside the 4,020 to 4,060 area where the read looks for a bounce to fail.
- A close above 4,098 cancels that idea. A close over 4,124 opens the up case.
- If the bounce fails, the first target is 3,942. A hawkish Warsh is what would push it there.
Dollar index (DXY). Our read is up, moderate. It closed Tuesday at 102.32, above the 102.0 line it needed.
- Next target 102.945. A hawkish Warsh is the push that gets it there.
- A daily close back under 102.0 weakens the read. A close under 101.13 says it’s wrong.
As of 28 Oct 2026, 18:20 UTC. Futures, the dollar index and gold are delayed data (about 10 minutes); yields from the 18:14 to 18:15 UTC prints. Levels come from our daily reads posted 25 to 28 Oct. Not advice.
Update 19:20 UTC
Warsh gave no December signal. Reporters pressed him on why the Fed held with inflation still high, and he did not give a clear answer. What moved prices was his tone on the economy and on credit. He said financial and credit conditions “have tightened for some businesses and households, much as we would expect”, and on whether the economy is running too hot: “That isn’t the judgment of most of my colleagues.” The market took that as the calm path. The 2-year fell from a 4.789% high after 18:30 to 4.695% at 19:14 UTC, back under Tuesday’s 4.737% close. The 10-year touched 4.999% and was 5.036% at 19:14. The dollar index slipped to 102.174 (19:06, delayed). Nasdaq 100 futures traded as high as 30,009 and were 29,901 at 19:06 (delayed). Gold futures spiked to 4,081, roughly 4,069 spot, above the 4,060 top of the zone but short of 4,098, then came back to 4,049 (19:06, delayed). At 19:16 UTC the Nasdaq 100 was 29,722 and the S&P 500 7,732, both still inside the levels above. The two dissents still stand, so December is not off the table; the bond market just priced it less firmly. Microsoft and Alphabet report after the close. He also said that from 2027 one of the eight meetings a year will cover strategy only, with no rate vote. Not advice.
Correction 19:20 UTC: an earlier version of this piece named Jerome Powell as Fed chair. The chair is Kevin Warsh, who took over in May. The title and text have been fixed.
