Earnings Preview · 13 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Business activity screen. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $5.94 a share on revenue near $51.2B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $24.99 of earnings per share against $23.33 over the last twelve, growth of about 7%. The median analyst target is $372 (range $305 to $436), 11% above the $335.00 share price, across 21 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 24 reports, the shares moved an average of +0.5% in the five sessions after the print and +3.9% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +4.5%; after a miss, -0.0%. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 40% prices a one-week move of roughly ±5.5% (about $316.44 to $353.56). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $330 and the heaviest call open interest at $345; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.
Levels that matter
At $335.00 the shares sit 9% below the 52-week high of $366.50 and 20% above the low of $279.10 (64% of the way up the range).
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 10% below our fair-value estimate: a modest cushion. Our fair-value estimate is $373.41 against the current share price of $335.00. The shares trade at 14.7 times trailing earnings and 13.7 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 30% with net margins near 35%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Money has been flowing IN underneath a flat-to-lower price: quiet accumulation, the kind of positioning that tends to show up before a name moves, not after. (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.10, five-day price change +0.2%, as of 2026-10-09, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
