Earnings Preview · 27 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Debt ratio. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $6.63 a share on revenue near $19.3B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $31.99 of earnings per share against $30.46 over the last twelve, growth of about 5%. The median analyst target is $476 (range $380 to $579), 0% above the $474.00 share price, across 22 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 25 reports, the shares moved an average of +3.0% in the five sessions after the print and +5.7% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +8.0%; after a miss, -10.6%. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
Levels that matter
At $474.00 the shares sit 15% below the 52-week high of $556.52 and 34% above the low of $353.99 (59% of the way up the range). The 50-day average is $431.50, below the price. The 200-day average is $460.15, below the price.
Valuation going in
The shares trade close to our fair-value estimate (-2% margin of safety): fairly priced, little cushion for a miss. Our fair-value estimate is $463.15 against the current share price of $474.00. The shares trade at 15.4 times trailing earnings and 14.6 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 9% with net margins near 9%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as accumulation (21-day Chaikin Money Flow +0.12, five-day price change +2.2%, as of 2026-10-23, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
