AAII Sentiment Survey Results
The latest AAII survey shows bullish votes at 36.9% against the historical average of 37.5% which means individual investors are not unusually optimistic. Neutral votes sit at 17.3% below the average of 31.0% which means fewer participants expect range bound conditions. Bearish votes reach 45.8% above the average of 31.5% which means pessimism exceeds the long term norm and sets up a contrarian reading.
| Category | Current | Average | Implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | 36.9% | 37.5% | Close to norm so no extreme optimism priced |
| Neutral | 17.3% | 31.0% | Lower than usual which means reduced range bound expectations |
| Bearish | 45.8% | 31.5% | Elevated reading which means herd lean creates contrarian space |
Fear and Greed Index Movement
The fear greed score stands at 27.1 after rising 6.1 points from 21.0 which means sentiment has lifted from deeper fear yet stays inside neutral territory. This 27.1 level remains well below the midpoint of 50 which means greed has not returned and downside protection still dominates positioning. The six point daily gain occurred because the prior week printed extreme fear readings that now moderate without crossing into optimism.
Volatility Reading and Implications
VIX prints at 18.39 which means moderate volatility persists and no extreme fear premium sits in option prices. This reading sits below recent five day averages which means stress has eased and the tape shows calmer conditions than last week. Moderate volatility at this level supports gradual price discovery because large downside moves remain unpriced.
Breadth Data Status
Breadth fields are empty so no advance decline or new high low data available.
Contrarian Signals and Market Lean
The bull bear spread prints at minus 8.9 percentage points which means bearish votes exceed bullish votes by that margin and exceeds the normal spread. Elevated bearishness at 45.8% above the 31.5% average creates a contrarian bullish lean because historical extremes in this survey have preceded reversals when pessimism clusters without matching price action. Neutral fear greed at 27.1 reinforces the signal because the index has room to rise before reaching levels that would cancel the contrarian edge.
Scenario Triggers and Risk Assessment
Scenario weights stand at 45% for a bullish resolution if AAII bearish votes fall below 40% on the next print which would confirm sentiment normalisation. 30% weight sits on continuation of neutral conditions if fear greed stays between 25 and 35 and VIX holds near 18. 25% weight attaches to a bearish shift if bearish votes climb above 50% alongside a VIX spike above 22. Risk sits at 35% driven by the empty breadth slice which leaves the read dependent on sentiment alone without confirmation from participation metrics.
| Experience Level | What to Watch on the Tape |
|---|---|
| Beginner | Track daily fear greed changes and note when the score moves out of neutral |
| Intermediate | Compare weekly AAII bearish percentage to its long term average for divergence signals |
| Advanced | Monitor VIX against the five day average alongside AAII spread for timing of sentiment shifts |
Herd bearishness at 45.8% above average which means contrarian bullish lean on neutral fear greed.
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
