An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Shopify Inc., a commerce technology company, provides tools to start, scale, market, and run a business of various sizes in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $113.75
Shopify Inc holds its Markup at $113.75.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 22 days
Price
$113.75
Valuation
111.52 trailing · 48.78 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
2.59
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$113.75
111.52 P/E · 48.78 fwd
Our fair value
$105.31
7% premium
Analyst target (avg)
$150.00
+32% to current
Target low $105.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $200.00
▲ current $113.75 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$113.75
you are here
Conservative
$94.50
-17%
Analyst avg
$150.00
+32%
Our fair value
$105.31
-7%
Analyst high
$200.00
+76%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish — a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Revenue growth
34.30%
Profit margin
10.77%
Debt to equity
1.43
Analyst consensus
Buy · 46 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Merchants Build Stores on Shopify but Valuation Stretches
Picture a corner shop owner in Manchester or a maker in Melbourne firing up an online store before lunch. Shopify supplies the platform that lets them take payments, manage inventory and ship worldwide without wrestling code or banks.
We pass on the shares. Revenue climbs at 34 percent yet the forward multiple sits at 52.8 times, the price trades 15 percent above our fair value and the moat remains narrow. Profit margins and return on equity both hover at 11 percent, so the growth has yet to translate into durable excess returns.
The main risk is simple arithmetic. A high multiple leaves scant room for any slowdown in new merchant sign-ups or margin pressure from bigger rivals. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-08-02 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-08-02Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-01Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-31Markup$113.75+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-30Markup$113.75+5.1%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$108.24+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 2%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (45 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $148.
2026-07-03Markup$108.24+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$108.24Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$102.54
+5.5%
·
$1,055
+5.5%
2 months
$110.79
-2.3%
·
$977
-2.3%
3 months
$126.17
-14.2%
·
$858
-14.2%
6 months
$164.75
-34.3%
·
$657
-34.3%
1 year
$110.26
-1.9%
·
$981
-1.9%
2 years
$63.01
+71.7%
·
$1,717
+71.7%
3 years
$61.36
+76.3%
·
$1,763
+76.3%
5 years
$124.70
-13.2%
·
$868
-13.2%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever SHOP does next, these words stay.
Shopify Inc · SHOP · Markup · $113.75
Recorded 2026-07-24 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
