Rivian Automotive, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and sells category-defining electric vehicles.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
15.61 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-02
Screened 2026-09-02 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Rivian Automotive Inc holds its Accumulation at $15.61. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-02
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$15.61
Valuation
N/A trailing · -8.74 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.61
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
44.75%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 44.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
16.84%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 16.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
27.81%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 27.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
5.44%
Below 5%
5.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 18.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 26 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +19% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rivian losses pile up in a cyclical trap
Picture a shiny electric pickup rolling off the line while the factory still burns cash on every vehicle. Rivian sells the dream of adventure EVs yet posts a 64 percent negative profit margin and negative 66 percent return on equity. With revenue growing just 11 percent and a narrow moat, the business offers little to justify stepping in when our fair value sits only three percent above the current price.
The forward multiple looks cheap at negative 9.3 times but that simply reflects deep losses in a cyclical industry. Auto makers at peak cycles often sport low multiples that later prove to be traps once volumes and pricing normalise. Twenty six analysts rate the shares a hold with an 18 dollar median target, matching our own modest valuation and leaving no real margin of safety.
Ethics clear the screen yet the operating reality does not. Persistent cash burn and exposure to economic swings keep any opportunity rating at none. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RIVN trades on NASDAQ. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-11Markdown · changed$15.61-6.5%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 6.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (26 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (26 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Accumulation$16.35+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 3%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (26 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $18. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-03Accumulation$16.35+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$16.35Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
