The Screen · Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Rubrik Inc
RBRK · USD · Market cap $17.9B · 3,797 employees
Rubrik, Inc.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
87.18 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-02
Screened 2026-09-02 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Rubrik Inc holds its Distribution at $87.18. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 19 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-02
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 19 days
Price at the screen
$87.18
Valuation
N/A trailing · 113.95 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.17
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.33%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
46.83%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 46.8% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
23.02%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 23.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.96%
Below 5%
Only 4.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-02 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 19.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 27 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-02 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Data safety priced well beyond its worth
Picture a firm that steps in when ransomware strikes and files vanish. Rubrik sells that service across cloud and on premise setups, yet the shares trade at nearly 80 dollars against a fair value near 54. Revenue climbs 39 percent, but the business still posts a 20 percent loss and carries a forward multiple above 121 times.
We pass because the numbers leave no margin for error. The narrow moat offers little defence if larger rivals cut in, and the price already bakes in flawless growth that has yet to turn into profit. Analyst targets sit higher still, yet our valuation shows the market has run ahead of the cash flows.
High expectations create the real risk here. Any slowdown in new customer wins or a shift in spending priorities could compress the multiple fast. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-27Markup$102.23+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-26Markup$102.23+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-25Markup$102.23+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-24Markup$102.23+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-23Markup$102.23+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-22Markup$102.23+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-21Markup$102.23+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-20Markup$102.23+43.1%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 43.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $96. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-11Markup$71.45+4.8%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 4.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $96.
2026-07-18Markup$68.19+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 19%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 39%. The street (28 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $96.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
