An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Eldorado Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the mining, exploration, development, and sale of mineral products primarily in Turkey, Canada, and Greece.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $32.74
Eldorado Gold Corp holds its Markup at $32.74.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-30
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 89 days
Price
$32.74
Valuation
11.45 trailing · 5.96 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.40
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$32.74
11.45 P/E · 5.96 fwd
Our fair value
$41.72
27% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$37.00
+13% to current
Target low $33.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $54.00
▲ current $32.74 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$32.74
you are here
Conservative
$34.83
+6%
Analyst avg
$37.00
+13%
Our fair value
$41.72
+27%
Analyst high
$54.00
+65%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
49.90%
Profit margin
28.62%
Debt to equity
28.79
Analyst consensus
Hold · 5 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Gold Miners Cheap On Paper Hide Cycle Traps
Picture a miner chasing the next big vein while the price of gold swings like a bar door in the wind. Eldorado sits in that world, pulling gold from sites across Turkey, Canada and Greece, yet its weak moat leaves it exposed every time metal prices turn.
The five times forward earnings multiple and thirty five percent margin of safety look attractive next to fifty percent revenue growth and twenty nine percent profit margins. We still pass. This is a classic cyclical value trap where peak earnings and a low multiple together warn that the good numbers may already be fading, not a bargain to be grabbed.
Analysts sit on a hold rating with a thirty seven dollar median target while return on equity runs only fourteen percent. Currency swings, permitting delays and sudden cost spikes sit in the path ahead, so the apparent discount carries real downside even though the ethical screen clears.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in EGO's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43. Entered 2026-07-27 · Distribution
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-18Markup$30.66+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 36%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (5 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $43.
2026-07-03Markup$30.66+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$30.66Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming EGO
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
6 May2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
buy
250K–500K
24 Apr2026
Scott Peters
Democrat
sell
50K–100K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$34.32
-18.2%
$0.08
$820
-18.0%
2 months
$36.38
-22.8%
$0.08
$774
-22.6%
3 months
$38.73
-27.5%
$0.08
$727
-27.3%
6 months
$34.94
-19.7%
$0.15
$808
-19.2%
1 year
$20.71
+35.5%
$0.15
$1,363
+36.3%
2 years
$14.94
+87.9%
$0.15
$1,889
+88.9%
3 years
$9.73
+188.4%
$0.15
$2,900
+190.0%
5 years
$11.61
+141.7%
$0.15
$2,430
+143.0%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever EGO does next, these words stay.
Eldorado Gold Corp · EGO · Markup · $32.74
Recorded 2026-07-30 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
