Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the identification, acquisition, development, and commercialization of novel products for the treatment of rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases in N…
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
26.44 USD
At the last full screen 2026-08-26
Screened 2026-08-26 · the tape above runs as of 10:31 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. holds its Distribution at $26.44. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 71 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-26
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 71 days
Price at the screen
$26.44
Valuation
N/A trailing · 39.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity: leveraged / inverse / derivative instrument (gharar)
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
No prohibited business activity identified
Fail
Debt load
2.35%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 2.3% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
3.72%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
37.79%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 37.8% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
3.71%
Below 5%
Only 3.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-26 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +85% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-26 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Rare disease biotech offers almost no safety margin
Picture a lab racing to treat conditions so uncommon most doctors will never meet a patient. Ultragenyx fits that brief yet its numbers tell a different story. Revenue is already shrinking and losses remain enormous, so the six percent gap between price and our fair value gives almost no room for the usual setbacks that hit drug developers.
The forward multiple sits at nineteen times earnings while margins sit at minus ninety one percent. That combination leaves little room for execution slips or delays in approvals. Analyst price targets sit far higher, but our reading stays flat because the business shows no durable edge and growth has turned negative.
High cash burn in early stage biotech always carries the risk of dilution or failed trials, and here the thin valuation cushion offers scant protection if either arrives. Ethical screens clear but opportunity does not.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: as a biotechnology name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
RARE trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-08-11Markup · changed$25.91+6.4%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-18Markdown$24.35+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 39%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 25%. The street (19 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $52.
2026-07-03Markdown$24.35+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$24.35Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
