An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a gold and silver exploration and development company in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $19.05
Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation holds its Distribution at $19.05.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · screen not yet scored
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 13 days
Price
$19.05
Valuation
N/A trailing · -27.41 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
2.72
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$19.05
N/A P/E · -27.41 fwd
Our fair value
$25.72
35% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$28.00
+47% to current
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$19.05
you are here
Conservative
$25.72
+35%
Analyst avg
$28.00
+47%
Our fair value
$25.72
+35%
Analyst high
$28.00
+47%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Profit margin
0.00%
Debt to equity
0.01
Analyst consensus
Buy · 1 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Gold explorer burns cash with nothing to show
Picture a prospector sinking shafts while the ledger shows only red ink and no output yet. Hycroft sits in exactly that spot, an early stage gold and silver play with zero profit margins, an ROE of minus 86 percent and a forward multiple that has turned negative because earnings have vanished. The opportunity rating stays at none because the numbers do not support any case for ownership.
The business is pure cyclical exposure. Gold miners at peak metal prices often post the lowest multiples precisely when earnings are about to roll over, turning what looks like value into a trap. Add an ethical screen that returns insufficient data because basic financial ratios are missing and the case for stepping in disappears.
One analyst target sits above the current price but that lone voice cannot offset the fundamental gaps or the sector timing risk. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in HYMC's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
HYMC trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 445%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%. Entered 2026-07-18 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Distribution$25.76+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is holding around 39% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 445%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 48%.
2026-07-03Distribution$25.76+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$25.76Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$43.71
-47.3%
·
$527
-47.3%
2 months
$37.50
-38.5%
·
$615
-38.5%
3 months
$40.12
-42.6%
·
$575
-42.6%
6 months
$12.36
+86.5%
·
$1,865
+86.5%
1 year
$4.23
+444.9%
·
$5,449
+444.9%
2 years
$2.95
+681.4%
·
$7,814
+681.4%
3 years
$3.20
+620.3%
·
$7,203
+620.3%
5 years
$36.50
-36.9%
·
$632
-36.9%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever HYMC does next, these words stay.
Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation · HYMC · Distribution · $19.05
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically