Screened 2026-08-27 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Harmonic Inc. holds its Distribution at $12.28. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-27
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$12.28
Valuation
51.17 trailing · 15.20 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.32
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
18.54%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 18.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
29.23%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 29.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-08-27 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 54.7% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +38% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-08-27 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Broadband supplier grows fast but earns nothing
Picture a firm selling the pipes that carry video and data into homes across the world. Harmonic is posting 43 percent revenue growth, yet it still reports an 11 percent loss margin and just 2 percent return on equity. With no identifiable moat and an opportunity rating of none, the numbers do not clear our threshold despite the 46 percent gap between the current price and our fair value.
Forward earnings sit at 15.5 times, but negative profits and thin returns on capital leave little room for error. Analyst targets cluster around 15 dollars, close to where the shares already trade, so the valuation gap offers no real margin once operating leverage fails to materialise. Ethical screen passes, yet that alone does not create an investable case.
Unknown competitive durability and persistent losses are the real exposures here. A single downturn in broadband spending could erase the growth story quickly. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
HLIT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-01Markup · changed$12.28+2.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-18Markup$14.93+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-03Markup$14.93+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$14.93Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
