2026-10-25
Harmonic clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
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latest tape · as of 18:04 UTC
The Screen · Technology · Communication Equipment
Harmonic Inc.
HLIT · Nasdaq · USD · Market cap $1.2B · 521 employees
Harmonic Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides broadband access solutions worldwide.
Not yet scored10.05 USD
Price as of 23 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 5 days ago
Screened 2026-10-23 · the tape above runs as of 18:04 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
- Price10.05 USD at the 23 Oct 2026 close
- Ethical screenNot yet scored
- OptionsOpen interest leans heavily to calls (put/call 0.06)
- Last reviewed23 Oct 2026 (5 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 10.05 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 19.00, over the last year.
- Trend Distribution
- Insiders no filings inside 60 days, left as found
- Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
- Options put/call open interest 0.06, read 2026-10-27
- Ethical screen not yet scored
Price10.05 USD
Fair value19.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-19Read Distribution10.58-5.0% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Distribution
2026-10-14Read Markdown10.99-8.6% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown
2026-10-02Read Distribution11.32-11.2% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after an 8% slide in 4 weeks
2026-09-01Read Markup12.28-18.2% to today Distribution gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
The full research record, in depth, below
This name holds its distribution label.
Harmonic Inc. holds its Distribution at $10.05. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days.
| Phase | Distribution · caution |
| Quantitative state | Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 29 days |
| Price at the screen | $10.05 |
| Valuation | 41.27 trailing · 13.28 forward price to earnings |
| Values screen | Not scored · score 70.0 |
| Beta | 1.34 |
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
| Test | Figure | Limit | What it means | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business activity | Permissible | Core business clean | Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending. | Pass |
| Debt load | 18.54% | Below 33% | Interest-bearing debt is just 18.5% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money. | Pass |
| Interest-bearing cash | 0.00% | Below 33% | Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit. | Pass |
| Receivables | 29.23% | Below 49% | Money owed to the company is 29.2% of assets, under the 49% limit. | Pass |
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical ReadThe Read, in Plain English
Harmonic clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
2026-09-24
Clears
Harmonic clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 19%, inside the ~33% line, and almost none of its income is interest, so it passes.
Earlier reads, kept as written. The ethical profile is tracked over time, not overwritten.
What the Numbers Say It Is WorthThe Fair Value Range
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 77.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 7 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +69% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & ProjectionsWhere it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain WordsBroadband supplier grows fast but earns nothing
Picture a firm selling the pipes that carry video and data into homes across the world. Harmonic is posting 43 percent revenue growth, yet it still reports an 11 percent loss margin and just 2 percent return on equity. With no identifiable moat and an opportunity rating of none, the numbers do not clear our threshold despite the 46 percent gap between the current price and our fair value.
Forward earnings sit at 15.5 times, but negative profits and thin returns on capital leave little room for error. Analyst targets cluster around 15 dollars, close to where the shares already trade, so the valuation gap offers no real margin once operating leverage fails to materialise. Ethical screen passes, yet that alone does not create an investable case.
Unknown competitive durability and persistent losses are the real exposures here. A single downturn in broadband spending could erase the growth story quickly. Analysis, not advice.
| Forward P/E | 13.3xcheap for a company growing this fast |
| Trailing P/E | 41.3xexpensive: the price assumes strong growth ahead |
| EPS, trailing | 0.26 |
| EPS, forward | 0.81 |
| Revenue growth | +53.5%growing very fast |
| Profit margin | -10.6%currently unprofitable |
| Return on equity | 6.5%a modest return on shareholder capital |
| FCF yield | 6.07% |
| Debt to equity | 0.36minimal debt: a conservative balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 3.05comfortably covers its short-term bills |
| Beta | 1.34moves a little more than the market |
| Short interest, float | 0.09% |
| 52-week range | 8.47 - 17.68 |
| Market cap | $1.2B |
| Employees | 521 |
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to TradeHLIT trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28
Distribution $10.73
+0.0% Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27
Distribution $10.73
+0.0% Entry 11
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26
Distribution $10.73
+1.4% Entry 10
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20
Distribution $10.58
+0.0% Entry 9
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: not fully scored yet. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-19
Distribution · changed $10.58
-3.7% Entry 8
The framework has shifted from markdown to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 8% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14
Markdown · changed $10.99
-2.9% Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-10-02
Distribution · changed $11.32
-7.8% Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-09-01
Markup · changed $12.28
+2.1% Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 2.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-08-01
Distribution · changed $12.03
-19.4% Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 19.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
2026-07-18
Markup $14.93
+0.0% Entry 3
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 65% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 40%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (7 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $15.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
- Harmonic Announces Reporting Date for Third Quarter 2026 Results Yahoo Finance · 8d ago
- The Bull Case For Comcast (CMCSA) Could Change Following New Fiber Monitoring Tech And Rural Expansion - Learn Why Yahoo Finance · 14d ago
- Harmonic Security Raises $50 Million Series B, Enabling Safe AI Adoption for Millions More Employees Yahoo Finance · 14d ago
- Cablenet Selects Harmonic's cOS Broadband Platform to Deliver Multi-Gigabit Speeds in Cyprus Yahoo Finance · 16d ago
- Comcast (CMCSA) Builds Smarter Fiber Network As Rural Broadband Push Gains Ground Yahoo Finance · 19d ago
Headlines from third-party outlets, linked for reference: not our reporting, not advice.
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| Period | Price then | Price return | Divs per share | $1,000 became | Total return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | $12.83 | +4.3% | · | $1,043 | +4.3% |
| 2 months | $9.75 | +37.2% | · | $1,372 | +37.2% |
| 3 months | $9.37 | +42.8% | · | $1,428 | +42.8% |
| 6 months | $10.71 | +24.9% | · | $1,249 | +24.9% |
| 1 year | $9.59 | +39.5% | · | $1,395 | +39.5% |
| 2 years | $11.26 | +18.8% | · | $1,188 | +18.8% |
| 3 years | $17.99 | -25.6% | · | $744 | -25.6% |
| 5 years | $7.61 | +75.8% | · | $1,758 | +75.8% |
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever HLIT does next, these words stay.
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