An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Autoliv, Inc., through its subsidiaries, develops, manufactures, and supplies passive safety systems to the automotive industry in the Americas, Europe, China, and Asia.
VERDICT
The label
Accumulation
read at $120.26
Autoliv, Inc. holds its Accumulation at $120.26.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Accumulation label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 40 days
Price
$120.26
Valuation
14.18 trailing · 10.12 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.36
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$120.26
14.18 P/E · 10.12 fwd
Our fair value
$150.00
25% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$134.00
+11% to current
Target low $118.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $150.00
▲ current $120.26 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$120.26
you are here
Conservative
$150.00
+25%
Analyst avg
$134.00
+11%
Our fair value
$150.00
+25%
Analyst high
$150.00
+25%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
3.30%
Profit margin
5.80%
Debt to equity
87.53
Analyst consensus
Buy · 17 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Safety systems supplier sits in a cyclical trap
Picture every new car rolling off the line with airbags and seatbelts that must work first time. Autoliv supplies those systems across Europe, China and the Americas yet sells into an industry whose volumes rise and fall with economic mood swings. The business clears our ethical screen and shows a 26 percent return on equity, yet we still pass.
Forward earnings sit at just 10.1 times while revenue edges forward only 3 percent a year and net margins remain 6 percent. That combination looks cheap until you remember the company is a pure auto-parts cyclical. Peak-cycle earnings often produce exactly these low multiples; the market has seen this pattern before and is not paying up.
Analysts like the name and place fair value higher, but the 25 percent gap to our own estimate does not create an opportunity. The low multiple is a warning, not a bargain, and growth remains too modest to offset the sector's swings. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day; its business and earnings are exposed to Sweden and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
ALV trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Sweden). As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $132. Entered 2026-07-21 · Distribution
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $132.
2026-07-18Markup$128.53+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $132.
2026-07-17Markup$128.53+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (17 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $132.
2026-07-03Markup$128.53+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$128.53Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
POLITICAL
The political ledger · congressional disclosures
Disclosures naming ALV
Date
Politician
Party
Type
Amount
30 Apr2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
sell
100K–250K
26 May2026
Dave McCormick
Republican
sell
100K–250K
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$119.62
+3.7%
$0.87
$1,044
+4.4%
2 months
$109.31
+13.5%
$0.87
$1,143
+14.3%
3 months
$102.94
+20.5%
$0.87
$1,214
+21.4%
6 months
$119.69
+3.7%
$1.74
$1,051
+5.1%
1 year
$105.57
+17.5%
$2.59
$1,200
+20.0%
2 years
$113.36
+9.5%
$5.37
$1,142
+14.2%
3 years
$81.25
+52.7%
$8.07
$1,626
+62.6%
5 years
$92.11
+34.7%
$13.23
$1,491
+49.1%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever ALV does next, these words stay.
Autoliv, Inc. · ALV · Accumulation · $120.26
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
