Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price13.68 USD
Fair value20.82
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-07-02Read Markdown14.10-3.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Afya Limited holds its Accumulation at $13.68. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 79 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 79 days
Price at the screen
$13.68
Valuation
8.09 trailing · 6.85 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.38
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
33.34%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 33.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.69%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.7% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
5.08%
Below 5%
5.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 52.2% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 9 covering, consensus Underperform. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Brazilian Medical Training Trades Below Fair Value
Every year fresh medical students across Brazil queue for places that shape entire careers, and Afya supplies the classrooms and clinical training that make those places possible. The numbers show a defensive business delivering 20% profit margins, 17% returns on equity and 8% revenue growth while the shares sit at a forward multiple of just 7 times earnings.
That valuation leaves a 46% gap to our $20.36 fair value and clears the ethical screen cleanly, yet the opportunity rating stays at none. Unknown competitive protection and a median analyst target of only $16 suggest the market is already discounting execution risk in a single-country education franchise.
Brazilian currency moves and shifting rules on medical-school licences remain live threats that could compress those margins quickly. The low multiple may simply reflect capped growth rather than a mispriced defensive compounder.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AFYA trades on Nasdaq (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-21Markdown$13.74-1.2%Entry 6
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-20Markdown$13.90-1.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-18Markdown$14.10+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-16Markdown$14.10+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (9 analysts) rates it underperform, with a mean price target of $17.
2026-07-03Markdown$14.10+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$14.10Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
