An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $568.26
Thermo Fisher Scientific holds its Distribution at $568.26.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-24
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 22 days
Price
$568.26
Valuation
30.55 trailing · 20.77 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
N/A
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
Standard-dependent. It does not clear our stricter asset-based reading, but it passes the more widely used market-value standard. The two disagree on one check — the debt test below — and where you draw your own line is the decision left to you.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 35.7% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows. Against market value it is 20.4%, under the 30% line the market-value standard uses — so that standard clears it.Divergent
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.2% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 17.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 2.2% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $610.91 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 10.50% revenue growth.
Read at
$568.26
30.55 P/E · 20.77 fwd
Our fair value
$610.91
8% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$620.00
+9% to current
Target low $510.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $750.00
▲ current $568.26 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$568.26
you are here
Conservative
$459.00
-19%
Analyst avg
$620.00
+9%
Our fair value
$610.91
+8%
Analyst high
$750.00
+32%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
10.50%
Profit margin
15.04%
Debt to equity
80.58
Analyst consensus
Buy · 26 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Labs Rely on Its Tools but Debt Weighs Heavy
Every hospital running a PCR test or pharma firm scaling a new drug leans on Thermo Fisher gear to get the job done. The business delivers steady 6% revenue growth and 15% profit margins with a moderate moat. Yet the numbers alone do not decide the call.
We pass because the ethical screen flags a clear fail on debt ratio. Forward earnings sit at 19.5 times and return on equity reaches just 14%, respectable but not enough to offset the leverage concern. The market buys the story with a $600 median target, yet our screen exists for exactly these cases.
The 13% margin of safety to fair value offers little comfort when core governance metrics are ignored. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
TMO trades on a US exchange. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $612. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis. Entered 2026-07-22 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-22Distribution$532.48+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $612. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Distribution$532.48+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $612. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Distribution$532.48+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $612. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Distribution$532.48+12.6%Entry 6
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 12.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $612. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Distribution$472.80+0.0%Entry 5
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $612. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-17Distribution$472.80+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $612. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-16Distribution$472.80+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 12%. The street (25 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $612. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-03Distribution$472.80+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$472.80Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.