Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 2.54, read 2026-11-05
Ethical passes the values gate
Price164.98 USD
Fair value185.00
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 4 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markup150.38+9.7% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup first Markup read since August
2026-10-11Read Accumulation145.46+13.4% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Distribution145.46+13.4% to today Markup gives way to Distribution with volume flow in agreement
2026-07-02Read Markup153.07+7.8% to today ✓First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Novartis AG holds its Markup at $164.98. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 5 days
Price at the screen
$164.98
Valuation
30.74 trailing · 16.26 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
0.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.88%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
10.31%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 10.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.22%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.73%
Below 5%
Only 1.7% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Novartis clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 32%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 2% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 4 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly an 11% discount to our $185.00 fair value, 4.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 10.8% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $185.00, with a range of $163.44 to $272.40, dated to the 2026-11-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it stands out
A 5%-growth business trading at just 16.3x forward earnings. That is an 11% discount to our $185.00 fair value: the market is pricing it cautiously while the fundamentals argue otherwise. 11 analysts rate it Hold with a $160.15 average target.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Switzerland and to currency swings; as a drug manufacturers - general name, trial and regulatory outcomes can move it sharply either way.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NVS trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Switzerland). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markup$160.79+6.9%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154.
2026-10-25Markup$150.38+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154.
2026-10-18Markup · changed$150.38+3.4%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 6.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154.
2026-08-22Markup$156.24+1.6%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154.
2026-07-21Markup$153.76+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-20Markup$153.76+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-19Markup$153.76+0.5%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-18Markup$153.07+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 10% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 29%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 16%. The street (10 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $154. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
