Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Intuitive Machines, Inc. holds its Markdown at $14.62. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 10 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 10 days
Price at the screen
$14.62
Valuation
N/A trailing · -94.32 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
1.85
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Prohibited sector: defense
Fail
Debt load
0.00%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 0.0% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 98% discount to our $29.00 fair value, weak competitive moat, 309.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 98.4% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 8 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +98% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
The moonshot that isn't for us
Intuitive Machines is a genuine moonshot — literally, a company landing hardware on the lunar surface, with revenue nearly tripling as the space economy takes off. It is exactly the kind of story that lights up a finance-channel highlight reel. It is also not something our screen will pass.
It fails on two counts. It does not yet make money, so a valuation built on it leans on hope more than cash flow. And its business activity does not clear our ethical screen. Add a weak competitive moat in a field crowded with better-funded rivals, and you have the kind of risk investors routinely underestimate when a story is this exciting.
We flag it AVOID not because space isn't the future — it may well be — but because "exciting" and "investable on our standards" are two different questions, and our job is to keep them apart. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
LUNR trades on Nasdaq. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 35.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 114% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 138%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 114% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 138%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-18Markup$13.52-54.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 54.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 114% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 138%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 45%. The street (9 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $38.
2026-07-03Markup$29.36+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$29.36Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.