An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · Jefferson Capital, Inc.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $19.54
Jefferson Capital, Inc. holds its Markup at $19.54.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · does not pass the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 9 days
Price
$19.54
Valuation
3.79 trailing · 6.72 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
N/A
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads CLASSICAL ONLY — it trades at roughly a 48% discount to our $29.00 fair value, strong competitive moat, 11.90% revenue growth.
Read at
$19.54
3.79 P/E · 6.72 fwd
Our fair value
$29.00
48% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$26.00
+33% to current
Target low $21.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $29.00
▲ current $19.54 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$19.54
you are here
Conservative
$29.00
+48%
Analyst avg
$26.00
+33%
Our fair value
$29.00
+48%
Analyst high
$29.00
+48%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
11.90%
Profit margin
25.81%
Debt to equity
324.52
Analyst consensus
Buy · 5 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company is excluded by both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. It fails on both:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✗ DOES NOT PASS
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✗ DOES NOT PASS
Why it fails. The problem is its business activity: conventional financial services. Because both standards agree on this, it is a clear exclusion, not a borderline case.
Business activityIts core business involves an activity the values screen does not clear.Fail
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is 122.5% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 2.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Debt buyer with strong returns but ethical red flag
When households default on credit cards or loans, someone has to buy the unpaid balances and try to collect. Jefferson Capital does exactly that, snapping up charged-off portfolios at deep discounts and turning them into cash. The business shows real operating strength on standard measures.
Revenue rises 12 percent a year, profit margins reach 26 percent and return on equity hits 37 percent. A forward price to earnings ratio of 6.7 times leaves a 48 percent gap to our fair value of 29 dollars from the current 19.54 dollars, while five analysts carry a consensus buy rating with a 26 dollar median target. A strong moat supports the cash generation.
Yet the stock fails our ethical screen on debt ratio. Leverage in a recovery business that already profits from distressed borrowers creates added fragility that standard numbers do not capture. We pass.
Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
PEERS
Related securities · others in JCAP's space worth a look
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
JCAP trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 20.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26. Entered 2026-08-03 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-08-03Markup · changed$19.54+20.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 20.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-18Markdown$16.24+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading oversold. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $26.
2026-07-03Markdown$16.24+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$16.24Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
INSIDERS
The insider ledger · Form 4 filings, as filed
Most recent filings · JCAP
Date
Insider
Title
Type
Shares
Value
2026-01-09
BURTON DAVID
Chief Executive Officer
385,000
$7,892,500
2026-01-09
JCF IV JCAP HOLDING L.P.
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security
11,000,000
$215,916,800
2025-06-27
BURTON DAVID
Chief Executive Officer
424,296
$8,061,624
2025-06-27
J.C. FLOWERS IV L.P
Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security