The Screen · Consumer Cyclical · Auto Manufacturers
Subaru Corporation
FUJHY · PNK · USD · Market cap $11.5B
Subaru Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles and aerospace products in Japan, Rest of Asia, North America, Europe, and Internationally.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
8.17 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-10
Screened 2026-09-10 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Subaru Corporation holds its Accumulation at $8.17. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-10
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 7 days
Price at the screen
$8.17
Valuation
19.93 trailing · N/A forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.08
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
3,807.89%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 3,807.9% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
16,982.18%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 16,982.2% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 11% discount to our $9.09 fair value, 3.00% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-10 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 11.3% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-10 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Japanese car maker looks cheap but carries hidden traps
Think of Subaru as the family saloon that keeps running in a tough market, yet the dashboard shows thin profits and mounting debt. The company delivers 10% revenue growth, but a 2% profit margin and 3% ROE reveal how little it actually keeps from each car sold. On top of that it fails the ethical screen because of its debt ratio, so we pass.
The numbers suggest a 28% margin of safety to a $10 fair value, yet this is classic cyclical value trap territory. Auto earnings often peak just when multiples look lowest, and Subaru's low returns show the business lacks durable pricing power. One analyst target sits near current levels, offering little comfort once cycles turn.
Currency swings, Japan exposure and the debt load add further volatility that the valuation does not reward. We see no reason to step in. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Japan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
FUJHY trades on PNK (the company is based in Japan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-30Distribution · changed$8.28+5.7%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 5.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-30Markup$7.83+1.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-18Markup$7.75+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 11%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 17%. The street (1 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $10.
2026-07-03Markup$7.75+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$7.75Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
