Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 0.68, read 2026-10-28
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price57.81 USD
Fair value66.47
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown65.06-11.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 9% slide in 5 weeks
2026-08-26Read Markup71.52-19.2% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 8 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown66.51-13.1% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Carvana holds its Markdown at $57.81. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 151 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 151 days
Price at the screen
$57.81
Valuation
32.07 trailing · 26.71 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
3.55
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
41.82%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 41.8% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
3.68%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 3.7% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
19.48%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 19.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Carvana's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 42% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Get an email when CVNA's ethical verdict changes
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 15% discount to our $66.47 fair value, narrow competitive moat, 52.40% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 15.0% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 21 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +44% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Online used car platform carries heavy debt burden
Picture a customer tapping to buy a used car from the driveway. The platform handles everything from inspection to finance, yet the balance sheet shows why this model still struggles to clear its debts.
We pass on Carvana. Revenue is growing at 52 percent and return on equity sits at 60 percent, yet the forward multiple of 34 times earnings leaves almost no margin of safety at the current price. The ethical screen fails on the debt ratio, which overrides any narrow competitive edge.
The business sits in a cyclical sector where earnings can peak quickly and multiples offer no protection. High analyst targets do not change the fact that leverage remains the dominant risk. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
CVNA trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-28Markdown$60.62+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $93. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-27Markdown$60.62+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $93. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Markdown$60.62+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $93. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markdown$60.62+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $93. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Markdown$60.62+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $93. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Markdown$60.62+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $93. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-22Markdown$60.62+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $93. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$60.62-4.9%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $93. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$63.73-2.0%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $93.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$65.06-9.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 9.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 1%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 41%. The street (21 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $93. Since the last review it its composite score rose.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
