An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
VERDICT
The label
Markup
read at $566.56
Cavco Industries, Inc. holds its Markup at $566.56.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Markup label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · passes the values gate
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-08-04
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 50 days
Price
$566.56
Valuation
24.65 trailing · 19.65 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS
Beta
1.28
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Our framework reads AVOID — it trades at roughly a 12% discount to our $637.09 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 9.50% revenue growth.
Read at
$566.56
24.65 P/E · 19.65 fwd
Our fair value
$637.09
12% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$640.00
+13% to current
Target low $600.00Analyst target rangeTarget high $700.00
▲ current $566.56 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$566.56
you are here
Conservative
$540.00
-5%
Analyst avg
$640.00
+13%
Our fair value
$637.09
+12%
Analyst high
$700.00
+24%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Revenue growth
9.50%
Profit margin
7.89%
Debt to equity
3.70
Analyst consensus
Strong Buy · 3 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This company clears both standards. There are two widely recognised ways to check whether a company is suitable for a Muslim investor. Here is how it did on each:
The common standard· AAOIFI Used by most halal investing apps✓ PASSES
Our stricter standard· asset-based The one Titan applies✓ PASSES
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is just 1.2% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling — it does not run on borrowed money.Pass
Interest-bearing cashCash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 6.8% of assets, under the one-third limit.Pass
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.Pass
Revenue purityOnly 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources — under the 5% line.Pass
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Modular Homes Look Cheap but Cycles Bite
Every time a buyer orders a factory-built home in the American southwest, Cavco captures the sale. Yet the business sits squarely in a consumer cyclical sector where demand evaporates when borrowing costs climb or confidence slips. We pass despite the modest revenue growth and ethical clearance because the underlying exposure to housing cycles outweighs any surface appeal.
Forward earnings sit at 19.3 times with an 8 percent top-line rise and 8 percent profit margins. Return on equity reaches 18 percent behind a moderate moat, and analysts cluster around a 600 target. None of that changes the fact that peak-cycle multiples in this industry often signal trouble rather than opportunity.
The real risk is the classic cyclical trap: earnings look steady today, the multiple does not scream expensive, yet any downturn in home orders quickly compresses both the top line and the valuation. A 10 percent margin of safety offers little cushion when volumes turn. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
CVCO trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588. Entered 2026-07-25 · Distribution
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-25Distribution$566.22+3.0%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588.
2026-07-18Distribution$549.91+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 33%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 29%. The street (2 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $588.
2026-07-03Distribution$549.91+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$549.91Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical screening pending. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
