Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-08-10
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price169.03 USD
Fair value144.57
Ethical score10.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-02Read Markdown169.03+0.0% to today
2026-08-28Read Accumulation175.72-3.8% to today
2026-07-23Read Distribution170.06-0.6% to today ✓
2026-07-21Read Markup170.06-0.6% to today
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
American Tower holds its Markdown at $169.03. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 55 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-25
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 55 days
Price at the screen
$169.03
Valuation
23.22 trailing · 24.11 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.90
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
71.16%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 71.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
3.36%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 3.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.26%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
American Tower's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 71% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-04. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades above our $144.57 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 4.70% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-25 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.5% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 23 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +24% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-25 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cell Towers Collect Rent But Debt Trips The Screen
Cell towers sit on hills and rooftops, quietly taking rent from every carrier that needs signal. American Tower owns a large chunk of that infrastructure and shows a strong moat, 27 percent profit margins and 30 percent ROE. We pass anyway.
The shares trade at 170 against our 157 fair value, an 8 percent premium, while forward earnings sit at 24.8 times and revenue grows just 7 percent. Analyst targets sit higher, yet the valuation leaves no margin once you strip out the growth already priced in.
Debt levels breach our ethical screen, and a REIT that must keep borrowing to expand towers carries real refinancing risk when rates stay elevated. The business itself is steady, but the combination of stretched price and leverage is enough to step aside.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$169.03-3.8%Entry 14
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 3.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $216.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 5.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $216.
2026-07-28Distribution$166.67+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $216. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Distribution$166.67+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $216. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Distribution$166.67+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $216. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Distribution$166.67-2.0%Entry 9
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $216. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Distribution$170.06+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $216. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $216. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-22Markup$170.06+0.0%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $216. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$170.06-12.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 12.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are down 7%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 14%. The street (22 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $216. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.