Screened 2026-09-08 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Applied Materials holds its Markdown at $472.79. Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-08
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
Elevated stress, defensive posture warranted, held for 1 days
Price at the screen
$472.79
Valuation
40.76 trailing · 25.60 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 68.5
Beta
1.60
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
19.42%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 19.4% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
11.92%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 11.9% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
34.23%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 34.2% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
4.41%
Below 5%
Only 4.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads OVERVALUED: it trades above our $403.04 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 24.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-08 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.8% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 35 covering, consensus Strong Buy. The average target sits +37% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-08 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Semiconductor Star Shining Too Bright?
Imagine a factory floor bustling with machines that whir into action to shape the future of our digital world. This is what Applied Materials does, providing the tools that help build the very chips at the heart of technology. It stands out for a booming revenue growth of 25% and enviable profit margins of 30%, underpinned by a strong moat - a testament to its market dominance in semiconductor equipment.
However, our fair value for AMAT is significantly lower than the current price, suggesting the stock is overvalued at -19%. Revenue growth and profit margins might look enticing, but considering the cyclical nature of the industry, these could be at peak earnings, painting a rosy picture that might not last. This is the cyclical value trap, where a low multiple on peak earnings can be deceptive.
The consensus rating from the 35 analysts covering the stock is a strong buy, with a median target price of $650, which seems optimistic given our valuation. While the ethical screen gives the green light, investors should tread carefully due to the cyclical risks and current overvaluation. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AMAT trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-13Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 12
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-12Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 11
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-11Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 10
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-09Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 9
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-08Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 8
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-07Markup$534.24+0.0%Entry 7
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-08-06Markup$534.24+0.9%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-21Markup$529.66+16.9%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 16.9% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Markup$453.01+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
2026-07-17Markup$453.01+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (68). The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A. Technically it is holding around 58% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 188%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 34%. The street (35 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $510. Insiders have been net sellers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
