Screened 2026-09-04 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. holds its Distribution at $44.18. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-04
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 11 days
Price at the screen
$44.18
Valuation
24.68 trailing · 11.35 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL
Beta
1.03
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
185.38%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 185.4% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
102.30%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are 102.3% of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
0.00%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 0.0% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 42% discount to our $62.50 fair value, weak competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-04 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 41.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 19 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +13% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-04 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Car parts chain buried by debt and weak returns
Walk into any Advance Auto Parts store and the shelves look stocked, yet behind the counter the business is barely turning a profit. Revenue edges up just 1 percent while net margins sit at 1 percent and return on equity is a paltry 3 percent. The forward multiple of 13.3 times earnings looks tempting for a cyclical name, but the weak moat and tiny growth tell us this is not a bargain, it is a trap. We pass.
The company also fails our ethical screen on its debt ratio, adding another clear reason to stay away. Nineteen analysts sit on a hold rating with a median target of 61 dollars, well short of any real recovery story. Low returns, thin margins and a consumer cyclical label point to earnings that could fall quickly when car owners delay repairs.
Risk sits in the combination of high leverage, minimal profitability and exposure to discretionary spending that can vanish in a slowdown. The 32 percent gap to our fair value number does not change the picture when the underlying business shows no sign of improvement. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
AAP trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-20Markup$56.96+7.1%Entry 6
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-20Markup$53.16-6.4%Entry 5
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 6.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-18Markup$56.81+0.0%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-16Markup$56.81+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 14%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 27%. The street (19 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $60.
2026-07-03Markup$56.81+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$56.81Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
