An entry written while the outcome is still unknown. It will be scored by what the market does next, and it will never be edited to look cleverer than it was.
In plain words · QuantumScape Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, develops solid-state lithium-metal battery technology for electric vehicles and other applications in the United States.
VERDICT
The label
Distribution
read at $5.86
QuantumScape Corporation holds its Distribution at $5.86.
PHPhase · the trend structure carries the Distribution label
INInsiders · no filings inside 60 days, left as found
POPositioning · no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
OPOptions · no verdict drawn today, left as found
SCScreen · screen not yet scored
edge confirmed
edge broken
edge forming
Each arm is one independent read. Conviction is not a single call, it is how many edges converge.
INVESTOR
The investor read · the season, not the day
As held on the ledger · 2026-07-19
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 57 days
Price
$5.86
Valuation
N/A trailing · -8.64 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 70.0
Beta
2.62
OPPORTUNITY
The opportunity · what the numbers say it is worth
Read at
$5.86
N/A P/E · -8.64 fwd
Our fair value
$8.15
39% discount
Analyst target (avg)
$8.15
+39% to current
Target low $2.50Analyst target rangeTarget high $10.00
▲ current $5.86 · | average target
Price history & projections · where it has been, where the models see it going
The valuation journey · where the price sits against fair value and the Street
Current
$5.86
you are here
Conservative
$2.93
-50%
Analyst avg
$8.15
+39%
Our fair value
$8.15
+39%
Analyst high
$10.00
+71%
Green marks levels above today's price, red below; the shaded band is the gap between the price and our fair value.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Profit margin
0.00%
Debt to equity
6.24
Analyst consensus
None · 8 covering
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; target range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
SCREEN
The values screen, explained · five checks, plain English
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Business activityIts core business isn't built on prohibited lines — no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.Pass
Debt loadInterest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.Fail
Interest-bearing cashInterest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.Fail
ReceivablesMoney owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.Fail
Revenue purity of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.Fail
Every security is read against two recognised standards: our stricter asset-based screen (ratios measured against total assets) and the more widely used market-value standard (measured against market capitalisation). Where they agree we say so plainly; where they part ways — almost always on the debt check — we show both readings and mark it, because that disagreement is the finding, not a fault. We report the score; you and your scholar make the call.
PLAIN
The business, in plain words · what the numbers mean
Battery dreams stall without real numbers
Picture an EV battery that promises to charge in minutes and last for a million miles, yet the company behind it still posts zero profit and a negative 38 percent return on equity. QuantumScape sits in exactly that spot, trading at 5.86 dollars against an analyst median of 8 dollars while showing a forward price to earnings ratio of negative 8.6 times. The ethical screen returns insufficient data because basic financial ratios are missing, so the opportunity rating stays at none.
We pass for straightforward reasons. No profits means the business model remains unproven at scale, and an unknown moat leaves investors guessing whether the solid-state technology can fend off bigger rivals already shipping cells today. The 39 percent gap to fair value looks attractive on paper, yet it rests on assumptions rather than cash flow or returns that actually exist.
Cyclical auto exposure adds another layer of uncertainty, with execution risk and funding needs likely to dominate until revenue appears. Currency swings or supply chain hiccups could widen losses further. Analysis, not advice.
Screened names in the same industry · explore each on its own page.
TRADE
Where & how to trade · wherever in the world you are
QS trades on Nasdaq. As a US-listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering US markets. New to this, or investing from outside the US? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
TRADER
The trader read · the latest dated commentary
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7. Entered 2026-07-18 · Markup
JOURNAL
The dated journal · newest first, never edited
2026-07-18Markup$7.09+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 35%. The street (8 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-03Markup$7.09+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$7.09Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
RETURNS
What holding actually paid · price plus dividends
If $1,000 had been placed · historical, not a promise
Period
Price then
Price return
Divs per share
$1,000 became
Total return
1 month
$8.03
-12.4%
·
$876
-12.4%
2 months
$6.36
+10.6%
·
$1,106
+10.6%
3 months
$6.90
+2.0%
·
$1,020
+2.0%
6 months
$12.79
-45.0%
·
$550
-45.0%
1 year
$4.33
+62.5%
·
$1,625
+62.5%
2 years
$5.71
+23.2%
·
$1,232
+23.2%
3 years
$6.30
+11.7%
·
$1,117
+11.7%
5 years
$27.90
-74.8%
·
$252
-74.8%
Historical returns from market close data. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
SEALED
This entry now belongs to the ledger. Whatever QS does next, these words stay.
QuantumScape Corporation · QS · Distribution · $5.86
Recorded 2026-07-19 · before the outcome · scored mechanically
