the daily read — Technical Frameworks | 14 May 2026
Titan Tactics: Everything Is Pre-CPI. Here Are the Levels When the Number Lands.
The framework has been building toward CPI for two sessions. Today it is not calling new setups. It is setting the table. Every level below is live the moment the 08:30 New York print hits tomorrow. The framework’s job tonight is to make sure you know exactly where to look and what you need to see before acting.
The Framework’s Updated Posture
Two things have changed in the setup list from yesterday. First, QQQ’s entry point has been updated. Yesterday the framework identified a post-CPI dip to $706-708 as the entry zone. Today, with QQQ rated A on the Radar and the Radar entry updated to post-CPI $740 reclaim, the framework is watching for a higher level. That shift reflects the market holding its ground into the number: if QQQ consolidates at current levels and then confirms above $740 post-print, that is a higher-quality entry than waiting for a deep dip that may not arrive.
Second, BTC and silver have been removed from the active setup list. BTC’s formal divergence (three consecutive sessions lower while equities hold) has earned a D- designation. Silver’s speculative flush (-1.61% from yesterday’s +3.91%) has earned a D designation. The framework does not chase D-rated setups. Both remain on the watch list for when they reassert, but they are not in the priority execution queue tonight.
What remains on the list: QQQ as the lead setup (post-CPI reclaim), Gold as the dip-entry plan (hot CPI) or continuation play (cool CPI), AUD/USD as the cleanest FX expression, and Crude as an event-dependent B- that the framework is monitoring rather than trading today.
The CPI Expected Move — What Options Are Pricing
The options market is pricing a CPI-day move of approximately $751 to the upside and $733 to the downside on SPY. This is the range the market believes CPI will keep price within after the initial reaction. Understanding this range tells you three things:
First, at SPY $742.31 today, the upside expected move is larger in dollar terms ($751 – $742.31 = $8.69) than the downside ($742.31 – $733 = $9.31). Almost symmetrical, with a fractionally larger downside move priced. Puts are more expensive. The institutional read from today’s briefs confirms: gex-max-pain-and-putcall-ratios/” style=”color:#D8AF44;text-decoration:underline” title=”What is Options Intelligence?”>P/C ratio of 0.781 means puts are being bought, not as de-risking but as event hedging. Longs are intact. Insurance is active.
Second, the VIX 5-minute rule applies from 08:30 New York tomorrow. Do not trade the first 5 minutes after the CPI print. The initial move is almost always driven by algorithmic reactions and headline-reading algos. The move that matters is the one that develops in the 10-30 minutes after the initial spike or drop. That is when you look for the framework’s levels to test and confirm.
Third, implied volatility will crush immediately after the number. If you hold options going into CPI, be aware that a move in your direction that is smaller than the expected move will not necessarily be profitable if IV crush offsets the delta gain. Know your Greeks before the number, not after.
Updated Equity Levels
Equity Confluence Zones — 14 May 2026 (CPI-Ready)
| Instrument | Current | Entry Trigger | Target | Change from 13 May |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | $742.31 | Hold $733 on dip | $751 | Updated to options range |
| QQQ | $742.31 (SPY ref) | Post-CPI $740 reclaim | $750-752 | Changed: $706-708 dip removed |
| XLF (watch) | — | Post-CPI first mover | Rotation signal | New: added as sector signal |
| IWM | — | Still weak participation | — | No change |
XLF is a new addition to the watch list today. The sector analysis from the earlier briefs identified XLF (Financials) as the likely first-mover rotation signal after CPI. When only 3 of 11 sectors are participating in the current advance, the question is not whether breadth expands but when and where it starts. Financials moving on a CPI print that either confirms or rules out additional rate pressure is the most likely first breadth expansion signal. Watch XLF before adding new equity positions.
Updated Commodity Levels
Commodity Key Levels — 14 May 2026
| Instrument | Current | Hot CPI Entry | Cool CPI Entry | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $4,694 | $4,650-4,660 dip hold | $4,700+ continuation | Constructive — unchanged |
| Silver | $87.46 | Watch $85.50-86.00 | Recovery only | D — no active setup |
| Crude (WTI) | $101.43 | Watch $100 hold | $103 extension | B- — event-dependent |
Updated FX Levels
The Framework’s Priority Order — Updated for CPI Day
Five setups from yesterday. Two removed (BTC, Silver). New addition (XLF watch). Updated priority list for CPI morning:
- QQQ — post-CPI $740 reclaim. The framework’s lead setup. Do not buy before the number. Do not buy the first 5-minute candle. Buy the confirmed reclaim of $740 after the algos have had their initial reaction. Highest conviction setup of the week.
- Gold — $4,650-4,660 dip hold (hot CPI) or $4,700+ continuation (cool CPI). Both scenarios have an entry. Tonight you plan both. Tomorrow the number tells you which plan to execute.
- AUD/USD — $0.7280 reclaim long (cool CPI only). Cleanest FX risk-on expression. AUD/USD has built two sessions of flat base at 0.7258. The stop is tight. The target is 0.7350+. Do not trade this on a hot CPI outcome.
- XLF — watch as first-mover breadth signal. If XLF moves strongly in either direction on the CPI print before SPY or QQQ confirm their levels, that is the market telling you which way the rotation money is going. XLF leads; follow when confirmed.
- Crude — B- watch only. No active setup. If cool CPI and $103 extension, revisit next week for a full setup.
Sizing and Risk — CPI Day Parameters
CPI Morning Risk Parameters
| Setup | Max Allocation | Entry Trigger | Stop | Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ long | Full risk unit | $740 reclaim confirmed | Below $737 | $750-752 |
| Gold long (hot CPI dip) | Half risk unit | $4,650-4,660 hold | Below $4,620 | $4,780-4,800 |
| Gold continuation (cool CPI) | Half risk unit | $4,700 close above | Below $4,680 | $4,750+ |
| AUD/USD long | Half risk unit | 0.7280 reclaim | Below 0.7240 | 0.7350+ |
Pre-CPI tonight: maximum 25% of normal sizing on any existing position. Add back to full allocation only after the entry trigger confirms post-print. The number changes the playbook. Be light enough to survive the wrong initial move, heavy enough to benefit from the confirmed direction.
Experience Guidance
New to markets: Tomorrow morning at 08:30 New York, the CPI number lands. Your job before that moment is to have your levels written down and your decisions made in advance. What do you do if it is hot? What do you do if it is cool? Traders who decide in advance react rationally. Traders who decide in the moment react emotionally. Tonight is the preparation. Tomorrow is the execution.
Developing traders: The QQQ entry has moved from $706-708 to post-CPI $740 reclaim. That is a meaningful update. The market has held its ground and made the dip-and-recover entry less likely. The new entry is about confirmation above the current level rather than a bargain purchase on a dip. Adjust your plan accordingly: this is a momentum confirmation trade, not a value entry.
Experienced traders: The P/C ratio at 0.781 tells you exactly what the institutional positioning looks like: longs are intact, hedges are active. When the number lands and the initial reaction fades, the institutions with their longs in place and their hedges protecting downside will be the first to add if the number is benign. That adds flow behind your entry rather than against it. Position for the second wave, not the first five minutes.
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