Earnings Preview · 13 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Screens compliant (both standards agree). A name values-conscious investors can weigh on the merits.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $2.53 a share on revenue near $25.4B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $12.14 of earnings per share against $8.61 over the last twelve, growth of about 41%. The median analyst target is $282 (range $190 to $320), 9% above the $259.18 share price, across 22 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 24 reports, the shares moved an average of +0.8% in the five sessions after the print and +1.8% over twenty. After a beat the average follow-through was +1.3%; after a miss, +3.3%. Misses have not been punished more than beats were rewarded, so the headline number alone has been a poor guide to the reaction here; guidance and the call matter more.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 49% prices a one-week move of roughly ±6.8% (about $241.66 to $276.70). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $210 and the heaviest call open interest at $280; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.
Levels that matter
At $259.18 the shares sit 8% below the 52-week high of $281.07 and 46% above the low of $177.32 (79% of the way up the range).
Valuation going in
The shares trade close to our fair-value estimate (+6% margin of safety): fairly priced, little cushion for a miss. Our fair-value estimate is $274.52 against the current share price of $259.18. The shares trade at 31.5 times trailing earnings and 22.3 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 7% with net margins near 21%.
Our stance
The name clears our screen; the print tells us whether the valuation is earning its keep.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as distribution (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.09, five-day price change +2.1%, as of 2026-10-09, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
