Earnings Preview · 13 October 2026
Where our screen stands going in
Fails the principled screen, Business activity screen. A strong business is not the same as a suitable one; for a values-conscious book this is a do-not-chase regardless of the print.
What the Street expects
Consensus looks for earnings of about $13.18 a share on revenue near $16.9B. Over the next twelve months analysts pencil in $74.03 of earnings per share against $64.80 over the last twelve, growth of about 14%. The median analyst target is $1150 (range $730 to $1325), 23% above the $932.61 share price, across 20 analysts.
How it has traded on past prints
Across the last 24 reports, the shares moved an average of +0.8% in the five sessions after the print and +6.0% over twenty. The post-earnings drift has been consistent: the first move has tended to keep going.
What options are pricing
Implied volatility near 50% prices a one-week move of roughly ±6.9% (about $867.90 to $997.32). Positioning: the heaviest put open interest sits at $800 and the heaviest call open interest at $1000; those strikes tend to act as magnets or walls in the days after.
Levels that matter
At $932.61 the shares sit 19% below the 52-week high of $1153.99 and 26% above the low of $740.01 (47% of the way up the range).
Valuation going in
The shares trade about 18% below our fair-value estimate: a modest cushion. Our fair-value estimate is $1130.24 against the current share price of $932.61. The shares trade at 14.4 times trailing earnings and 12.6 times forward earnings. Revenue is growing about 42% with net margins near 31%.
Our stance
We are not participants, the name fails our principled screen, so we watch it as a sentiment gauge, not a holding.
What the flow says going in
Underlying money flow reads as distribution (21-day Chaikin Money Flow -0.06, five-day price change -0.8%, as of 2026-10-09, desk flow model).
This is analysis, not financial advice. Always manage your risk.
