Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures, packages, tests, and sells integrated circuits and other semiconductor devices in Taiwan, China, Europe, the Middle East,…
Not yet scored
430.00
Price as of 14 Oct 2026Daily close, not a live quoteLast reviewed 7 days ago
Screened 2026-10-14 · the tape above runs as of 13:28 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price430.00 at the 14 Oct 2026 close
Our ratingFair value, current read markdown
Ethical screenNot yet scored
OptionsOpen interest leans to puts (put/call 1.27)
Last reviewed14 Oct 2026 (7 days ago)
A summary of the dated readings below, not a live quote and not advice.
PRICE · FAIR-VALUE RANGE1M3M6MYTD1Y3Y5Y
What this means: price 430.00 against the desk's fair-value range, base estimate 313.24, over the last year.
Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-22
Options put/call open interest 1.27, read 2026-10-18
Ethical screen not yet scored
Price430.00
Fair value313.24
Ethical score50.0/100
RatingFAIR VALUE
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-09-15Read Accumulation415.17+3.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Accumulation first Accumulation read since July
2026-08-15Read Markup415.17+3.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markup
2026-07-02Read Accumulation415.17+3.6% to today ✓First review on file: Accumulation
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing holds its Markdown at $430.00. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-14
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 2 days
Price at the screen
$430.00
Valuation
35.13 trailing · 23.07 forward price to earnings
Values screen
Not scored· score 50.0
Beta
1.26
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
This security has not been fully scored against the values screen yet.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.00%
Below 5%
Only 0.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
The Read, in Plain English
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing clears the business-activity screen and the figures we can measure look clean, but one or more financial figures are still pending, so the verdict is not final yet.
Read as at 2026-10-20. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads FAIR VALUE: it trades above our $313.24 fair value estimate, strong competitive moat, 35.10% revenue growth.
Fair value range in , drawn from the 2026-10-14 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 27.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-14 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it is worth knowing
A quality business: a strong moat and 47% profit margins. At the screened price it sits 27% above our $313.24 fair value: priced for the quality, not a bargain.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Taiwan and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TSM trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Taiwan). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-18Accumulation$430.00-3.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 3.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $468.
2026-10-11Accumulation$445.14+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $468.
2026-10-02Accumulation$445.14+7.2%Entry 8
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $468.
The framework has shifted from markup to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $468.
2026-08-15Markup · changed$415.17+0.0%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $468.
2026-07-18Accumulation$415.17+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $468.
2026-07-16Accumulation$415.17+0.0%Entry 4
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 30% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 95%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 37%. The street (18 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $468. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-05Accumulation$415.17Entry 3
5 July 2026 — $415.17 — ACCUMULATION (state model: sideways, 282 days). Journal opened. The quiet season on the irreplaceable company: quality 92, forward 21 times, discount geopolitical not financial. Tensions on file: values pass with zero headroom at 50; insider VP raised stake 18% late June. Watch: the nine-month range edges, the screen line, fab geography.
2026-07-03Accumulation$415.17+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$415.17Entry 1
Our analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with ethical pass with moderate score. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
