Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.29, read 2026-10-27
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price62.40 USD
Fair value46.98
Ethical score70.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-15Read Markup60.05+3.9% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Markup first Markup read since July
2026-10-02Read Markdown61.54+1.4% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 10% slide in 9 weeks
2026-07-30Read Distribution68.34-8.7% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
2026-07-02Read Markup69.39-10.1% to today First review on file: Markup
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
TC Energy Corp holds its Markup at $62.40. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 467 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-23
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 467 days
Price at the screen
$62.40
Valuation
24.13 trailing · 21.69 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.98
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
51.05%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 51.1% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
2.49%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 2.5% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.35%
Below 5%
Only 1.3% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
TC Energy's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 51% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-10-27. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today TRP does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-23 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 23.2% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 3 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +12% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-23 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Canadian Pipelines Priced Well Above Fair Worth
Picture a long pipeline carrying gas across borders while energy prices swing like a pendulum. TC Energy sits in that trade yet trades at a 35 percent premium to our fair value, with a forward P/E of 25.4 times that leaves little room for the cycles it faces. We pass.
Revenue grows at 7 percent and margins sit at 22 percent, yet the narrow moat and 11 percent return on equity do not justify the gap to our $45 mark. In a cyclical business a stretched multiple often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain, and the buy-rated analyst targets offer no extra comfort.
Currency moves, regulatory shifts and demand drops remain real threats that could compress returns fast. The ethical screen clears, yet valuation and cycle risk outweigh that single positive. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Canada and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
TRP trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Canada). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-10-22Markup$61.14+1.8%Entry 14
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 1.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 0% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-10-15Markup · changed$60.05-2.4%Entry 13
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$61.54-0.5%Entry 12
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61.
2026-08-30Distribution$61.85-9.5%Entry 11
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 9.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-28Markup$68.34-2.0%Entry 9
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 2.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-27Markup$69.76+0.0%Entry 8
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-26Markup$69.76+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-25Markup$69.76+0.0%Entry 6
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-07-24Markup$69.76+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 42%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (3 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $61. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
