Positioning political selling, disclosed 2026-09-11
Options put/call open interest 0.19, read 2026-11-01
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price85.19 USD
Fair value75.18
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 6 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-22Read Accumulation90.65-6.0% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation with results news in the headlines
2026-10-02Read Markdown88.63-3.9% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown after a 6% slide in 3 weeks
2026-09-08Read Markup94.60-9.9% to today Distribution gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 5 weeks
2026-08-07Read Distribution87.24-2.3% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Oneok holds its Markup at $85.19. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-06
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$85.19
Valuation
16.55 trailing · 15.76 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.80
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
49.24%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 49.2% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
4.34%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 4.3% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
4.63%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 4.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.10%
Below 5%
Only 0.1% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Oneok's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 49% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-07. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today OKE does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 6 Nov 2026: it trades above our $75.18 fair value estimate, moderate competitive moat, 52.80% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-06 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 13.3% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 20 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +16% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $75.18, with a range of $75.18 to $86.46, dated to the 2026-11-06 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Midstream cash flows hide a heavy debt burden
Every day gas moves through Oneok's network and the fees keep coming in. Yet the company trades well above our fair value with a negative margin of safety and a forward multiple that does not reflect the cyclical nature of energy volumes.
We pass because the ethical screen flags excessive debt and the business sits in a sector prone to boom and bust earnings. Revenue growth of twenty percent looks strong on the surface, yet profit margins of ten percent and a sixteen percent return on equity do not justify stretching valuations when downturns can erase those gains quickly.
Analysts may cluster around a higher target, but peak cycle earnings often produce low multiples that later prove expensive. Debt remains the core concern and leaves little room if volumes or prices turn. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OKE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-03Accumulation$97.07+7.1%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 7.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it A, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $102.
2026-10-27Accumulation$90.65+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-26Accumulation$90.65+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 13% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Accumulation$90.65+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-24Accumulation$90.65+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-23Accumulation$90.65+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-21Markdown$90.65+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-20Markdown$90.65+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 11% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $101. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-16Markdown$90.65+2.3%Entry 7
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 2.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 18% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 18%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (20 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $100.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
