The Screen · Basic Materials · Lumber & Wood Production
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc.
SSD · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $7.1B · 5,545 employees
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, manufactures, and sells structural solutions for wood, concrete, and steel connections in the North America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
Screened 2026-09-11 · the tape above runs as of 22:12 UTC · 11 Sep · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its markdown label.
Simpson Manufacturing Co., Inc. holds its Markdown at $173.49. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 208 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-11
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 208 days
Price at the screen
$173.49
Valuation
19.02 trailing · 17.87 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 70.0
Beta
1.31
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
15.86%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 15.9% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
22.35%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 22.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.36%
Below 5%
Only 0.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-11 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 14.4% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 5 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +26% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-11 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Housing connector maker priced for a boom that may stall
Every new timber frame needs metal plates and joist hangers, yet Simpson's fate tracks US housing starts that rise and fall with rates and sentiment. At 19.2 times forward earnings the shares already sit well above our fair value, giving a negative margin of safety even before the cycle turns. Revenue growth of nine percent and an 18 percent return on equity look respectable, but they are not enough to justify paying a premium when the underlying demand is so exposed to macro swings.
We therefore pass. The business clears our ethical screen and shows decent margins of 15 percent, yet the combination of a stretched valuation and unknown competitive edge leaves no margin for error. Analyst targets sit higher, but they rarely price in the sharp earnings drops that hit when building activity slows.
Cyclical stocks often appear reasonable on current multiples right at peak earnings, only for the multiple to compress as volumes fall. That trap is exactly what keeps us away here. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it already moves more than the market on an average day.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SSD trades on the NYSE. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-13Markup$193.44+0.2%Entry 4
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 0.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $218.
2026-07-18Markup$193.07+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 17%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 19%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $218.
2026-07-03Markup$193.07+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markup$193.07Entry 1
The framework reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.