Positioning political buying, disclosed 2026-09-25
Options put/call open interest 0.79, read 2026-10-28
Ethical passes the values gate
Price84.67 USD
Fair value91.05
Ethical score83.7/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-25Read Accumulation81.93+3.3% to today ✓Markdown gives way to Accumulation after a 5% rise in 2 weeks
2026-10-11Read Markdown77.93+8.6% to today Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 15% slide in 14 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution91.42-7.4% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Sempra holds its Accumulation at $84.67. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 24 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-10-28
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 24 days
Price at the screen
$84.67
Valuation
23.82 trailing · 14.79 forward price to earnings
Values screen
PASS· score 83.7
Beta
0.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Full pass across all five screens. This security clears the Titan Ethical Standard: its business and its balance sheet both stay inside the lines.
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
31.59%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is just 31.6% of its assets, well under the one-third ceiling: it does not run on borrowed money.
Pass
Interest-bearing cash
1.03%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 1.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
1.62%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 1.6% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
1.43%
Below 5%
Only 1.4% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Clears, in Plain English
Sempra clears all five screens. Its business is in a permissible area, its interest-bearing debt is about 32%, inside the ~33% line, and interest is about 1% of its income, under the ~5% line, so it passes.
Read as at 2026-10-28. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
Get an email when SRE's ethical verdict changes
Today SRE passes the screen. If new figures move it to a fail, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 8% discount to our $91.05 fair value, narrow competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-10-28 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 7.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +17% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-10-28 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Steady utility with little spark to chase
Picture a gas pipe that never bursts yet never widens either. Sempra runs regulated networks across California and Texas, delivering predictable cash but nothing that excites growth investors. Revenue is already shrinking 4 percent, return on equity sits at just 6 percent and the narrow moat offers scant protection if costs keep rising.
At 16.7 times forward earnings the shares trade almost exactly at our fair value with only a 2 percent margin of safety. Analysts may still rate it a buy with a 104 dollar median target, yet the business shows no sign of accelerating profits or widening its edge. Ethical checks clear, but that alone does not create an opportunity.
The real danger lies in higher borrowing costs and tighter state regulation that could squeeze already modest returns. Low growth plus average valuation equals a classic trap for anyone expecting more than slow dividends. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
SRE trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading overbought. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-10-18Markdown$81.93+5.1%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 5.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-10-11Markdown · changed$77.93+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-10-02Distribution$77.93-8.8%Entry 6
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 8.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-09-13Distribution$85.47+1.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-08-13Distribution$84.66-7.4%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 7.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-07-18Distribution$91.42+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 2% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 23%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (17 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $104.
2026-07-03Distribution$91.42+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$91.42Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with strong ethical credentials. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
