QFIN
Qfin Holdings, Inc.
Financial Services · Credit Services · NMS
$11.71
Close 2026-05-22
✗ ETHICAL FAIL
STRONG MOAT
HIGH
Data Confidence: 100%
Full financial profile available
Market Cap
$1.4B
Trailing P/E
1.81
Forward P/E
2.36
Rev Growth
-8.7%
Profit Margin
31.2%
ROE
24.7%
Analyst Target
$22.48
Recommendation
BUY
Ethical Screen
| Business Activity | PASS |
| Debt Ratio (3.02%) | FAIL |
| Cash Ratio (5.30%) | FAIL |
| Receivables Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Revenue Ratio (0.00%) | PASS |
| Overall | FAIL |
Score Valuation: 95.0
Score Quality: 70.2
Score Combined: 61.8
Fair Value Est: $74.34 · Margin of Safety: +535.1%
Opportunity Scores
Valuation100.0
Quality75.0
Cash Flow50.0
Moat100.0
Balance Sheet100.0
Debt Purity0.0
Liquid Purity0.0
Rev Purity100.0
Compliance29.4
Tier: GOLD · Score: 78.6 · Rank: #94
Earnings History (Last 8 Quarters)
| Date | EPS Est. | Reported EPS | Surprise % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 6.39 | Pending | -- |
| 2026-03-17 | 8.21 | 7.82 | -4.8% |
| 2025-11-18 | 11.80 | 10.80 | -8.5% |
| 2025-08-14 | 12.67 | 12.76 | +0.7% |
| 2025-05-19 | 12.48 | 12.62 | +1.2% |
| 2025-03-16 | 12.22 | 13.24 | +8.3% |
| 2024-11-19 | 10.01 | 12.18 | +21.7% |
| 2024-08-13 | 7.17 | 8.92 | +24.4% |
Quarterly Financials
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | EBITDA | Gross Profit | Op. Income | EPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-31 | $3.4B | $1.0B | — | — | — | 7.92 |
| 2025-09-30 | $4.4B | $1.4B | — | — | — | 10.96 |
| 2025-06-30 | $4.3B | $1.7B | — | — | — | 13.04 |
| 2025-03-31 | $4.1B | $1.8B | — | — | — | 12.82 |
| 2024-12-31 | $3.9B | $1.9B | — | — | — | 13.40 |
Insider Transactions
| Date | Name | Role | Shares | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | CHEN XIAOHUAN | Director | 250,000 | $3.2M |
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | Value | % Held |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aspex Management (HK) Ltd | 6.4M | $74.8M | 0.0% |
| Fountainvest China Capital Partners Gp3 Ltd. | 6.0M | $70.4M | 0.0% |
| Blackrock Inc. | 5.9M | $68.9M | 0.0% |
| Krane Funds Advisors LLC | 5.1M | $59.1M | 0.0% |
| Triata Capital Ltd | 3.5M | $40.7M | 0.0% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 3.3M | $38.9M | 0.0% |
| Greenwoods Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. | 3.3M | $38.4M | 0.0% |
| Shaw D.E. & Co., Inc. | 3.1M | $36.5M | 0.0% |
| Goldman Sachs Group Inc | 2.1M | $24.8M | 0.0% |
| Bank of America Corporation | 2.0M | $23.2M | 0.0% |
Analyst Recommendations
3 Months Ago
12 analysts
2 Months Ago
12 analysts
Last Month
13 analysts
Current
13 analysts
Strong Buy
Buy
Hold
Sell
Strong Sell
Additional Fundamentals
Enterprise Value
-$368.9M
-$368.9M
Price/Book
0.40
0.40
Beta
0.544
0.544
Analysts
13
13
Total Revenue (TTM)
$19.2B
$19.2B
Total Debt
$4.3B
$4.3B
Earnings Growth
-41.0%
-41.0%
Dividend Yield
1245.0%
1245.0%
Rec. Mean
1.54
1.54
Trade Consideration
The Opportunity
Score 61.8 (P97 — top 3.0% of scored tickers). Strong Moat. Ethical FAIL. 13 analysts at Buy.
Price: $11.71 | Target: $22.48 (+92%) | Fair Value: $74.34 (+535%)
Score
62
Moat
STRONG
Conviction
Standard
Upside
+92%
The Fundamentals
Revenue Growth-8.7%
Profit Margin31.2%
ROE24.7%
Forward P/E2.4
Market Cap$1.4B
Earnings Track Record
| Date | Estimate | Reported | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | $6.39 | Pending | — |
| 2026-03-17 | $8.21 | $7.82 | -4.8% |
| 2025-11-18 | $11.80 | $10.80 | -8.5% |
| 2025-08-14 | $12.67 | $12.76 | +0.7% |
| 2025-05-19 | $12.48 | $12.62 | +1.2% |
| 2025-03-16 | $12.22 | $13.24 | +8.3% |
Position Sizing Scenarios
Stop: $9.95 (-15%) | Entry: $11.71
| Shares | Cost | Profit to Target | R:R |
|---|---|---|---|
| To Consensus ($22.48, 13 analysts) | |||
| 10 | $117.05 | +$107.70 (92%) | 6.1R |
| 50 | $585.25 | +$538.50 (92%) | 6.1R |
| 100 | $1,170.50 | +$1,077.00 (92%) | 6.1R |
| To Fair Value ($74.34) | |||
| 10 | $117.05 | +$626.40 (535%) | 35.6R |
| 50 | $585.25 | +$3,132.00 (535%) | 35.6R |
| 100 | $1,170.50 | +$6,264.00 (535%) | 35.6R |
Risk Factors
- No elevated risk flags in current data
The Verdict
Qfin Holdings, Inc. holds a strong competitive moat and trades at a 535.1% discount to fair value.
Quantitative Grade
A single score combining all analytical layers below. A is strongest, D is weakest.
D
Quant Score
38.3
Risk Grade
—
Layers
8
Risk Profile
How much could this ticker lose on a bad day? These metrics measure worst-case scenarios from historical data.
VaR 95%
-5.2%
worst expected daily loss, 19 in 20 days
CVaR 95%
-7.2%
avg loss on the worst 5% of days
Annual Volatility
—
Sortino Ratio
-0.49
above 1.0 is good
Max Drawdown
-73.2%
Worst Day
—
Forward Outlook
Based on 10,000 simulated price paths, here is the probability of where this ticker could be in 30, 60, and 90 days.
30d Prob Up
—
90d Prob Up
—
Median Return 30d
—
Liquidity Score
57
Liquidity Grade
MODERATE
Trend & Momentum
What direction is this ticker actually moving, filtered through noise? Is it speeding up or slowing down?
Kalman Trend
—
Trend Strength
—
Momentum Signal
—
HMM Regime
—
RSI Signal
—
Technical Signals
Classic chart signals that institutional traders monitor. Golden Cross is bullish, Death Cross is bearish.
MA Crossover
BELOW_200
Bollinger Position
LOWER_HALF
Beta
—
Relative Volume
1.0x
Short Interest
—
Financial Health
Is this company financially sound? The Z-Score measures bankruptcy risk. The F-Score measures fundamental strength.
Altman Z-Score
—
—
below 1.81 = distress zone
Piotroski F-Score
—
Earnings Beat Rate
75.0%
Earnings Consistency
—
Correlations
These tickers tend to move together (positive) or in opposite directions (negative). Useful for portfolio diversification.
Most Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| FINV | 0.651 |
| LX | 0.605 |
| YMM | 0.568 |
| FUTU | 0.505 |
| VWO | 0.486 |
Inverse Correlated
| Ticker | Correlation |
|---|---|
| SUNC | -0.196 |
| BAES.L | -0.176 |
| KAMCO.KW | -0.141 |
| RASIYAT.KW | -0.129 |
| GBK.KW | -0.122 |
Seasonality
Does this ticker have consistent patterns on certain days or months? Historical tendencies, not guarantees.
Best Day
Wednesday
Worst Day
Thursday
Best Month
Sep
Worst Month
Jul
Fri-Mon Effect
-0.005190794818461651
Earnings Drift
After this company beats earnings, does the price keep going up? Drift tracks post-earnings momentum.
Avg Drift After Beat
+5.1%
Beat Drift Positive %
50.0%
Consistency
—
Momentum Rankings
How does this ticker's recent performance compare to the entire universe? Ranked across 1, 3, 6, and 12-month returns.
1M Return
-3.2%
3M Return
-9.4%
6M Return
-26.6%
12M Return
-68.1%
Momentum Rank
#4078
Momentum Signal
DOWN