Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.34, read 2026-11-03
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price4.17 USD
Fair value4.29
Ethical score70.0/100
Value readOvervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-18Read Markdown5.68-26.6% to today ✓Accumulation gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since October
2026-10-11Read Accumulation5.93-29.7% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation
2026-10-02Read Markdown5.93-29.7% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after a 28% slide in 13 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution8.26-49.5% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Orion S.A holds its Markdown at $4.17. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 39 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Markdown · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 39 days
Price at the screen
$4.17
Valuation
N/A trailing · 15.80 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
1.00
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
58.29%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 58.3% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
14.38%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 14.4% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Orion S.A's business is in a permissible area, but its interest-bearing debt is about 58% of the company, well over the ~33% line, so it does not pass on the financial screens.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
Follow this verdict
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Overvalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades above our $4.29 fair value estimate, none competitive moat.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 2.8% discount to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets. The average target sits +53% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $4.29, with a range of $4.29 to $4.93, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Why it gives us pause
At 15.8x forward earnings, the price already runs ahead of the business. It trades 37% above our $4.29 fair value, so you would be buying at a premium, not a discount. The none moat is real, but quality alone does not make an expensive price cheap.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to Luxembourg and to currency swings; it carries a real debt load, which raises the stakes if revenue slips.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
OEC trades on the NYSE (the company is based in Luxembourg). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-01Markdown$5.60-1.4%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-25Markdown$5.68+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D. Technically it is momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-18Markdown · changed$5.68-4.2%Entry 8
The framework has shifted from accumulation to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.2% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-11Accumulation · changed$5.93+0.0%Entry 7
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-10-02Markdown · changed$5.93-13.4%Entry 6
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 13.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-09-08Distribution$6.85+0.0%Entry 5
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-08-07Distribution$6.85-17.1%Entry 4
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 17.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-18Distribution$8.26+0.0%Entry 3
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B. Technically it is momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are down 38%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 18%. The street (4 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $7.
2026-07-03Distribution$8.26+0.0%Entry 2
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$8.26Entry 1
Our analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows negative risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.