NAS10029,447+1.73%S&P7,638+1.14%GOLD$4,412+0.27%BTC$77,965+2.04%VIX15.48+0.26%live tape · as of 17:00 UTC
The Screen · Energy · Oil & Gas Midstream
Navigator Holdings Ltd.
NVGS · the NYSE · USD · Market cap $1.5B · 1,975 employees
Navigator Holdings Ltd.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
24.49 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-16
Screened 2026-09-16 · the tape above runs as of 17:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its accumulation label.
Navigator Holdings Ltd. holds its Accumulation at $24.49. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-16
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 25 days
Price at the screen
$24.49
Valuation
11.34 trailing · 14.08 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 70.0
Beta
0.47
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Debt ratio
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Permissible
Core business clean
Its core business isn't built on prohibited lines: no gambling, alcohol, tobacco, weapons, or interest-based lending.
Pass
Debt load
39.62%
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is 39.6% of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
0.00%
Below 33%
Cash held in interest-bearing accounts and securities is 0.0% of assets, under the one-third limit.
Pass
Receivables
8.31%
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is 8.3% of assets, under the 49% limit.
Pass
Revenue purity
0.99%
Below 5%
Only 1.0% of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, under the 5% line.
Pass
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-16 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. The price runs 16.9% above the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 6 covering, consensus None. The average target sits +6% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Our more conservative model reads it as fully-to-richly valued here, while the Street is more bullish: a quality-at-a-fair-price name rather than a deep-value one.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-16 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Gas carriers drift toward a classic value trap
Picture a fleet of specialised tankers hauling ammonia and LPG across choppy energy markets. Navigator moves these cargoes for traders and industrial buyers, yet revenue has already slipped 7 percent while the shares trade at 11.7 times forward earnings. That multiple looks attractive until you remember the sector's habit of peaking just as multiples compress.
We pass because the business sits in a deeply cyclical corner of midstream energy with no visible moat and a return on equity of only 9 percent. Our fair value sits just below the current price, leaving no margin of safety despite the strong-buy chorus from six analysts. Low multiples in this industry have often signalled the top of the cycle rather than a bargain.
Currency swings, utilisation swings and sudden shifts in petrochemical demand remain the real drivers of earnings. Profit margins of 19 percent can vanish quickly when charter rates turn. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: it's a small-cap, so the share price can swing harder than the market; its business and earnings are exposed to United Kingdom and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
NVGS trades on the NYSE (the company is based in United Kingdom). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The framework has shifted from distribution to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 6.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $25.
The framework has shifted from accumulation to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 10.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $25.
2026-07-18Accumulation$23.00+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 20% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 62%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (6 analysts) rates it strong buy, with a mean price target of $25.
2026-07-03Accumulation$23.00+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Accumulation$23.00Entry 1
The framework reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Ethical screening: PASS with passing ethical screen (70). The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.