NAS10029,644+0.67%S&P7,651+0.17%GOLD$4,416+0.37%BTC$81,118+6.17%VIX14.81−4.08%live tape · as of 21:00 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
M&T Bank
MTB · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $34.4B · 21,866 employees
M&T Bank Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company and Wilmington Trust, National Association that provides retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
238.00 USD
At the last full screen 2026-09-09
Screened 2026-09-09 · the tape above runs as of 21:00 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
The Label · The Season, Not the Day
This name holds its distribution label.
M&T Bank holds its Distribution at $238.00. Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
Consolidating, no directional conviction, held for 3 days
Price at the screen
$238.00
Valuation
12.61 trailing · 11.29 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.56
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 21% discount to our $286.83 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 6.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 20.5% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 18 covering, consensus Hold. The average target sits +8% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regional bank tripped by its own ethics screen
Picture a customer depositing a pay cheque in Buffalo and never knowing the bank may be backing activities that clash with basic standards. That disconnect is exactly why we pass on M&T Bank. The business clears a moderate moat and posts a 32 percent profit margin, yet the ethical filter flags it outright.
Revenue edges up just 6 percent and return on equity sits at 11 percent, numbers that look steady rather than exciting. At 11.9 times forward earnings the shares trade below our calculated value, and the analyst crowd sits on a hold rating near the current price. None of that moves the needle once the ethical screen has already ruled the name out.
The main risk is that any bank tied to questionable business lines can face sudden regulatory or reputational hits that wipe out a thin valuation cushion. Modest growth leaves little room for error if credit conditions worsen. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MTB trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-09-06Markdown · changed$240.34-4.6%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from markup to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 4.6% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (18 analysts) rates it none, with a mean price target of $257.
2026-08-06Markup · changed$251.94+13.3%Entry 4
The framework has shifted from markdown to markup since the last review. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 13.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows excellent risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (18 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $233.
2026-07-18Markdown$222.44+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (18 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $233.
2026-07-03Markdown$222.44+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Markdown$222.44Entry 1
The framework reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
