NAS10027,087+1.72%S&P7,401+0.65%GOLD$4,073−1.00%BTC$75,828−0.15%VIX24.55−12.88%latest tape · as of 20:03 UTC
The Screen · Financials · Banks - Regional
M&T Bank
MTB · a US exchange · USD · Market cap $31.7B · 21,866 employees
M&T Bank Corporation operates as a bank holding company for Manufacturers and Traders Trust Company and Wilmington Trust, National Association that provides retail and commercial banking products and services in the United States.
FAIL · Does not pass the screen
219.78 USD
Price as of 5 Nov 2026Daily close, not a live quote
Screened 2026-11-05 · the tape above runs as of 20:03 UTC · two dates, stated on purpose · verdict and workings shown in full · never trimmed
Key facts today
Price219.78 USD at the 5 Nov 2026 close
Our value readUndervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026
Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.24, read 2026-11-02
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price219.78 USD
Fair value280.65
Ethical score10.0/100
Value readUndervaluedas of 5 Nov 2026
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-30Read Accumulation221.66-0.8% to today Markdown gives way to Accumulation after an 8% slide in 8 weeks
2026-09-06Read Markdown240.34-8.6% to today ✓Markup gives way to Markdown first Markdown read since July
2026-08-06Read Markup251.94-12.8% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after a 13% rise in 5 weeks
2026-07-02Read Markdown222.44-1.2% to today ✓First review on file: Markdown
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
M&T Bank holds its Accumulation at $219.78. The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Accumulation
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the sellers, held for 56 days
Price at the screen
$219.78
Valuation
11.53 trailing · 10.47 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 10.0
Beta
0.62
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity screen
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity: Financials sector
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
M&T Bank does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in conventional financial services, which the screen treats as interest-based, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our analysis reads Undervalued vs our fair value, as of 5 Nov 2026: it trades at roughly a 20% discount to our $280.65 fair value, moderate competitive moat, 0.50% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-11-05 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 21.7% discount to the base estimate.
Where our models see it going: fair-value estimate $280.65, with a range of $237.23 to $395.38, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Regional bank tripped by its own ethics screen
Picture a customer depositing a pay cheque in Buffalo and never knowing the bank may be backing activities that clash with basic standards. That disconnect is exactly why we pass on M&T Bank. The business clears a moderate moat and posts a 32 percent profit margin, yet the ethical filter flags it outright.
Revenue edges up just 6 percent and return on equity sits at 11 percent, numbers that look steady rather than exciting. At 11.9 times forward earnings the shares trade below our calculated value, and the analyst crowd sits on a hold rating near the current price. None of that moves the needle once the ethical screen has already ruled the name out.
The main risk is that any bank tied to questionable business lines can face sudden regulatory or reputational hits that wipe out a thin valuation cushion. Modest growth leaves little room for error if credit conditions worsen. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The main risks here are ordinary market swings and the chance our fair-value read proves too optimistic.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
MTB trades on a US exchange. As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-06Accumulation$219.78-0.8%Entry 16
The analysis reads accumulation. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved down 0.8% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246.
The framework has shifted from markdown to accumulation since the last review. Smart money appears to be quietly building positions. This typically precedes a markup phase. Price has moved up 1.4% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (21 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $246.
2026-10-23Markdown$218.65+0.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $248.
2026-10-16Markdown$218.65+0.5%Entry 13
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved up 0.5% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $250. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-15Markdown$217.49+0.0%Entry 12
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $250. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-14Markdown$217.49+0.0%Entry 11
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $252. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-13Markdown$217.49+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $252. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-12Markdown$217.49-1.3%Entry 9
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 1.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $252. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-11Markdown$220.44+0.0%Entry 8
The analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $252. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-10Markdown$220.44+0.0%Entry 7
Our analysis reads markdown. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 6% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading neutral. Over the past year the shares are up 24%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 20%. The street (20 analysts) rates it hold, with a mean price target of $252. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
