Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options no verdict drawn today, left as found
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price3.43 USD
Fair value5.25
Ethical score30.0/100
RatingAVOID
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-08-22Read Markdown3.11+10.3% to today
2026-07-02Read Distribution3.50-2.0% to today ✓
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against today's price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Banco Bradesco holds its Markup at $3.43. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-09-09
Phase
Markup
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 8 days
Price at the screen
$3.43
Valuation
7.98 trailing · 6.30 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.22
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity exclusion: FAIL
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity exclusion: FAIL
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Our framework reads AVOID: it trades at roughly a 53% discount to our $5.25 fair value, 7.20% revenue growth.
Fair value range in USD, drawn from the 2026-09-09 screen. The gold marker is the market price at the same screen. A 53.1% margin of safety to the base estimate.
Third-party analyst targets: 4 covering, consensus Buy. The average target sits +22% from the screen price.
Reading the gap · Both our model and the analysts see meaningful upside from here.
Price History & Projections
Where it has been, where the models see it going. History from market close data; projection points are our fair-value estimates and third-party analyst targets, dated to the 2026-09-09 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap Brazilian bank fails ethical screen outright
Every Brazilian juggling wages and insurance claims eventually hits a local bank like Bradesco. The business clears a forward P/E of 6.3 times with 10 percent revenue growth, 25 percent profit margins and 13 percent return on equity. We pass anyway.
The ethical screen flags a clear fail on business activity exclusion. No valuation cushion or analyst buy rating changes that outcome. The 45 percent gap to our fair value stays irrelevant once the screen rules the name out.
Brazil still layers currency and political risk on top. A low multiple in regional banking often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BBD trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-08-22Markdown · changed$3.11-12.1%Entry 5
The framework has shifted from distribution to markdown since the last review. Price is trending lower. Sellers are in control and the prior trend has reversed. Price has moved down 12.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-22Distribution$3.54+1.1%Entry 4
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved up 1.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-07-18Distribution$3.50+0.0%Entry 3
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it D, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4.
2026-07-03Distribution$3.50+0.0%Entry 2
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
2026-07-02Distribution$3.50Entry 1
The framework reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
