Positioning no disclosures inside 60 days, left as found
Options put/call open interest 0.14, read 2026-11-05
Ethical does not pass the values gate
Price2.51 USD
Fair valueUnder review
Ethical score30.0/100
Our investment reviews on this name
2026-10-29Read Distribution2.73-8.1% to today ✓Markup gives way to Distribution after a 19% slide in 4 weeks
2026-10-02Read Markup3.35-25.1% to today Markdown gives way to Markup after an 8% rise in 6 weeks
2026-08-22Read Markdown3.11-19.3% to today ✓Distribution gives way to Markdown after an 11% slide in 7 weeks
2026-07-02Read Distribution3.50-28.3% to today ✓First review on file: Distribution
Our analytic regime reads on this name, dated and marked against the screened price. Small sample per name, and separate from the daily-framework accuracy on the Track Record page.
Banco Bradesco holds its Distribution at $2.51. The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days.
As held on the ledger · 2026-11-05
Phase
Distribution · caution
Quantitative state
The statistical read favours the buyers, held for 4 days
Price at the screen
$2.51
Valuation
5.84 trailing · 5.42 forward price to earnings
Values screen
FAIL· score 30.0
Beta
0.19
The Workings
Five Screens, Shown in Full
Does not pass. Business activity exclusion: FAIL
Test
Figure
Limit
What it means
Status
Business activity
Excluded
Core business clean
Business activity exclusion: FAIL
Fail
Debt load
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing debt is of its assets, above the one-third ceiling the screen allows.
Fail
Interest-bearing cash
Excluded
Below 33%
Interest-bearing cash and securities are of assets, above the one-third limit.
Fail
Receivables
Excluded
Below 49%
Money owed to the company is of assets, above the 49% limit.
Fail
Revenue purity
Excluded
Below 5%
of revenue comes from non-compliant sources, over the 5% line.
Fail
Five checks adapted from AAOIFI screening standards: business activity plus four balance-sheet ratios. All five must pass for ethical clearance. Every figure is arithmetic on public accounts, not judgement.
The Ethical Read
Why It Falls Short, in Plain English
Banco Bradesco does not clear the screen at the business-activity stage. It operates in an area the screen excludes: Business activity exclusion: FAIL, so the financial ratios are not the deciding factor here.
Read as at 2026-11-05. It updates when the underlying figures move, and past reads are kept below.
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Today BBD does not pass the screen. If new figures move it to a pass, we send you one short email with the before and after. Verdicts change rarely, so you may not hear from us for a long time.
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What the Numbers Say It Is Worth
The Fair Value Range
Fair value under review. Our model's value is 2.04x the price, above our 2.00x limit. We show no fair value, margin of safety or value read built on it until the review clears.
Where our models see it going: no fair-value estimate yet, range not available, dated to the 2026-11-05 screen.
Fair value and rating are our own model estimates; the Street's range reflects third-party analyst estimates. Analysis, not advice.
The Business, in Plain Words
Cheap Brazilian bank fails ethical screen outright
Every Brazilian juggling wages and insurance claims eventually hits a local bank like Bradesco. The business clears a forward P/E of 6.3 times with 10 percent revenue growth, 25 percent profit margins and 13 percent return on equity. We pass anyway.
The ethical screen flags a clear fail on business activity exclusion. No valuation cushion or analyst buy rating changes that outcome. The 45 percent gap to our fair value stays irrelevant once the screen rules the name out.
Brazil still layers currency and political risk on top. A low multiple in regional banking often signals peak earnings rather than a bargain. Analysis, not advice.
Another profit measure, before interest, tax and non-cash costs: EBITDA.
The risks · The things to watch: its business and earnings are exposed to Brazil and to currency swings.
Plain-English interpretation of our own screen data. Analysis, not advice.
Where & How to Trade
BBD trades on NYSE (ADR) (the company is based in Brazil). As a listed security it is accessible through almost any international broker offering its home market. New to this, or investing from abroad? Our guide to accessing global markets covers brokers, currencies and the practical steps.
The Dated Journal · Newest First, Never Edited
Every Entry, As Written
2026-11-04Distribution$2.47-3.1%Entry 17
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.1% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-03Distribution$2.55+0.0%Entry 16
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-02Distribution$2.55+0.0%Entry 15
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-11-01Distribution$2.55-3.0%Entry 14
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-31Distribution$2.63+0.0%Entry 13
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-30Distribution$2.63-3.7%Entry 12
The analysis reads distribution. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 3.7% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
The framework has shifted from markup to distribution since the last review. Smart money appears to be selling into strength. Institutional holders may be rotating out. Price has moved down 32.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows modest positive risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-28Markup$4.03+0.0%Entry 10
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is sitting below its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (7 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter. It reported earnings in this window, a natural checkpoint for the thesis.
2026-10-25Markup$4.03+0.0%Entry 9
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved down 0.0% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it B, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is momentum reading bullish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (6 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
2026-10-18Markup$4.03+20.3%Entry 8
The analysis reads markup. Price is trending higher with momentum. The crowd has caught on and buyers are in control. Price has moved up 20.3% since our last review. Ethical screening: FAIL. This security does not pass our values-based screening criteria. The risk-adjusted return profile shows good risk-adjusted returns. Our composite framework grades it C, carrying a low risk profile. Technically it is holding around 1% above its long-term trend line with momentum reading bearish. Over the past year the shares are up 20%. Our forward projection puts the odds of a 10% gain over the next month near 28%. The street (5 analysts) rates it buy, with a mean price target of $4. Insiders have been net buyers over the past quarter.
Each entry above was written on its date, before the outcome. A journal you can prune is not a journal.
